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Deschutes Basin faces a very low snowpack year; groundwater levels and irrigation supplies at risk
Summary
Oregon Water Resources staff told the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners that basinwide snowpack is far below normal (about 33% of average), precipitation is well under typical levels and groundwater indicators are declining — conditions likely to force heavy reservoir drawdown and significant cuts for some irrigation districts this summer.
Deschutes County — Oregon Water Resources Department officials warned the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners on March 31 that the basin is entering a very dry year, with snowpack and precipitation well below average and groundwater levels showing persistent declines.
Jeremy Griffin, Deschutes Basin Watermaster, told the board, “we didn't have to unload the snow cat this year, which is not good news,” and said basin‑wide snowpack models are running near 33% of normal. Griffin and other OWRD staff said warm temperatures have shifted much of this winter's precipitation to rain rather than snow, reducing the system's capacity to recharge aquifers and sustain late‑season river flows.
The briefing laid out several implications: reservoirs will likely be drawn down more quickly than in a typical year, releases set aside for endangered species (notably about 20,000 acre‑feet intended for Oregon spotted‑frog flows) will further reduce water available to irrigation districts, and districts that depend on live‑flow senior water rights will fare better than junior‑priority districts. Griffin said NRCS forecasts put the upper Deschutes at roughly 35% of average for the remainder of the season and noted April 1 is the statistical snowpack peak, leaving only a short window for recovery.
Why it matters: lower snowpack and reduced recharge drive shortfalls in both surface and groundwater supplies. Joe Kemper, a groundwater hydrogeologist with OWRD, summarized long‑term trends in observation wells and said central aquifer levels have declined roughly 1 foot per year since the mid‑1990s and have accelerated to about 2.5 feet per year in recent dry years. Kemper cautioned that while some springs and shallow aquifers respond quickly, the deeper central aquifer has a multi‑year ‘memory’ and will likely continue to decline without sustained recharge.
The department emphasized operational and legal constraints shaping how water can be used. Griffin described how US Fish & Wildlife Service requirements keep certain reservoir accounts (e.g., Wickiup and Crane Prairie) artificially full until flow windows for species protection pass, then release stored water that irrigation districts generally cannot access. That dynamic, combined with below‑average snowpack, “masks” the true severity of the drought signal in some reservoir gauges, staff said.
Local impacts and next steps: OWRD officials said districts such as Three Sisters and Tumalo Creek — and some junior‑priority users — may face significant reductions or only one crop this year. Staff also noted a rise in new wells and deepening activity in recent years as private wells decline, particularly around La Pine. The department is preparing technical reports (including assessments of canal leakage) and is reviewing a small number of permit applications under Oregon's groundwater allocation rule.
The board heard the briefing and requested staff follow up with any data or measures applicable to county planning. OWRD staff offered to return with more localized analyses and technical appendices to support district planning and community outreach.
