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District forecast warns kindergarten declines will shrink future cohorts, with larger high‑school drops ahead
Summary
A consultant told the Cabrillo Unified School District board that a long decline in kindergarten cohorts is likely to produce modest near‑term stability followed by falling elementary and steep high‑school enrollments by 2028–2030; local housing projects and birth‑rate declines are the key drivers.
Tom Williams, the district's enrollment projection consultant, told the governing board that the most consequential trend facing the district is a long decline in kindergarten cohorts that will ripple through later grades.
"The most consequential enrollment factor for the Cabrillo Unified School District has been the significant decline in kindergarten over the last 15 years," Williams said during a slide presentation. He said the district served 41 students at Kings Mountain Elementary this year after starting the year with 49, and projected the school's enrollment could exceed 50 next year.
Williams summarized the forecast for the district as a whole: relatively stable kindergarten totals for the next two years followed by much lower numbers in 2028–2030 based on local birth data. The high‑school level is expected to see the largest near‑term drop — Williams projected 81 fewer high‑school students next fall and a much larger decline across the next three years as larger cohorts graduate out of grades 10–12.
He described the data sources and caveats: historical figures came from the California Department of Education through 2016 and district files thereafter; a temporary expansion of TK eligibility in recent years boosted younger-grade counts and complicates short‑term trends. Williams also noted the potential effects of housing changes, singling out the Cypress Point and another MidPen development in Moss Beach; he said his timeline assumes part of the development's students may arrive in the 2027–28 school year.
Board members asked whether private schools or changing private‑school shares could alter forecasts; Williams said private‑school enrollment is important only if the share materially changes and cited examples where private schools made little difference to local district totals. A public commenter highlighted a 1–2 percent discrepancy between earlier consent‑agenda enrollment figures and those presented during the forecast.
District officials said they will use the forecast to guide staffing and facility planning and to monitor housing and birth‑rate indicators.
