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Revenue update: April tax receipts and methods suggest FY26 collections likely above HJ2 despite HR1 effects
Summary
Fiscal staff reported April tax‑season data showing strong income growth but signs HR1 reduced taxable income; multiple extrapolation methods indicate FY26 general fund collections likely exceed the HJ2 forecast by roughly $170 million, though corporate and production taxes show weakness.
Sam Schaefer of the legislative fiscal division told the committee that tax‑season collections through April provide a clearer view of FY26 general fund receipts and that several reasonable extrapolation methods put final collections above the HJ2 forecast.
Schaefer said ongoing general fund revenue was up about 6% year‑over‑year through April and pointed to several extrapolation scenarios: using the decade weakest May‑June…
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