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Gilroy Unified reviews decade-long enrollment decline but will not recommend school closures this year
Summary
Staff presented birth-rate and cohort forecasts showing a steady decline in enrollment over the next decade; based on current projections, staff will not recommend any school closures for 2025-26 but urged continued annual monitoring and a 10-year planning horizon.
District staff presented an informational update on potential school closures Tuesday, framing the issue with birth-rate and cohort data and a 10-year enrollment forecast.
Mr. Mesa reviewed data showing a district high of 10,821 students in 2020-21 and projections that place enrollment well below that level over the coming decade. He said national and regional birth-rate declines are a driver and that the district's projection for the coming year is roughly 10,100 students (a drop of roughly 100 from the current year), while longer-term forecasts show continuing declines. Based on the current projection set, staff said it will not recommend a school closure for 2025-26.
Trustees discussed the variance between demographers' projected declines and actual enrollment; staff attributed a smaller-than-forecast decline this year in part to charter inflows and local enrollment dynamics. The presenter emphasized that school-closure decisions require a multi-year view and that an authorized closure process typically takes about two years from initiation to implementation.
Board members asked for continued annual reporting and for demographic breakdowns by subgroup when available. Staff agreed to continue the 10-year forecasts and to share more disaggregated data at a future meeting.
