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State demographer warns slower growth, aging and housing limits will shape Northglenn's future
Summary
Neil Marquez of the Colorado State Demography Office told the Northglenn City Council that lower fertility, population aging and recent shifts in migration are slowing growth statewide and that limited housing supply helps explain Northglenn's near‑zero population change despite county gains.
Neil Marquez, the state forecast demographer at the Colorado State Demography Office, told the Northglenn City Council on March 2 that a combination of falling fertility, an aging population and weakened migration are reshaping population prospects for Colorado and for Northglenn.
Marquez said Colorado and much of the world have fertility rates below replacement and that the state’s fastest‑growing age group is 65 and older. "When you have fewer births and more deaths, you're going to have slower population growth," he said. He added that international migration and domestic migration remain important but have recently weakened or shifted, complicating short‑term forecasts.
Why it matters: Northglenn’s population estimate for 2024 was 37,829, and Marquez said the city’s 10‑year annual growth rate is about –0.1%. The demographer tied that slow growth partly to a lack of new housing units: Northglenn had about 14,880 housing units and a modest vacancy rate, limiting how many people the city can accommodate without additional construction.
Council members pressed Marquez on local health and demographic details. Council member Burns asked whether Adams County’s high infant mortality rate had been factored into the forecasts; Marquez said county‑level mortality profiles are accounted for and that infant mortality, while serious, represents a relatively small share of total deaths. Council member Condo asked whether recent developments (for example, new apartment complexes that opened after the data cutoff) might change the 10‑year figure; Marquez said post‑June 1, 2024 openings would not be reflected in the current estimates and that updated figures are expected in October.
Marquez also described differences among places in Adams County: unlike many Colorado counties, Adams benefits from higher fertility rates and a younger age profile, so natural change (births minus deaths) remains a strong contributor to growth there. But he warned that recent reductions in international migration—particularly the drop between 2024 and 2025—are important to local projections because some recent county growth relied heavily on international arrivals.
On housing and affordability, Marquez said Colorado remains short of housing relative to the 2000 household structure and that rising housing costs and lower household sizes both increase the unit requirement to house a given population. "We have a housing shortage," he said, noting 2023 estimates that placed the statewide shortfall in the tens of thousands of units and emphasizing that affordability can limit future in‑migration.
What’s next: Marquez urged council members to consider downside risks—such as weaker migration or worsening affordability—when reviewing local plans. He also said the Demography Office will continue producing updated estimates as new data arrive and welcomed follow‑up with city staff for more granular questions.
The council thanked Marquez for the briefing; no formal action or vote followed the presentation.
