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Demographer: San Ramon Valley Unified could lose roughly 3,600 students over 10 years as births plunge
Summary
A district consultant told trustees a sharp drop in local births in 2023–24 will depress incoming kindergarten cohorts in 2028–29, producing a projected districtwide resident TK–12 decline of about 3,600 students (roughly 13%) by 2034, with elementary grades hit hardest.
Isa Hoya of consulting firm MGT told the San Ramon Valley Unified School District board that a 10‑year resident student population forecast shows a substantial enrollment decline driven primarily by recent birth‑rate drops.
"Two new data points that were made available this year . . . show a drastic drop in births for the area," Hoya said during a detailed presentation of the demographer's methodology and assumptions. He walked trustees through GIS mapping of student residences, capture rates (the percentage of locally born children who enter district kindergarten five years later), mobility factors and student yields from planned residential development.
Hoya said the district recorded 1,491 resident kindergarteners in fall 2024 and that birth data for 2023 and 2024 indicate substantially fewer births five years earlier — the cohorts that would enter kindergarten in 2028 and 2029. "We foresee that significantly affecting the incoming kindergarten class," he said, noting the district typically captures about 140% of local births into kindergarten because of in‑migration of families with school‑age children.
The forecast summary shows resident TK–12 enrollment of roughly 28,496 in fall 2024 declining to about 24,451 by 2034 — a drop of roughly 3,600 students districtwide and a 16% decline among PK–5 students. Middle‑ and high‑school populations also decline but less steeply; Hoya said a large "bubble" remains in upper grades that will matriculate out and not be fully replaced by smaller incoming classes.
Planned housing changes will not fully offset the decline, Hoya told the board. He said 51 residential projects totaling about 6,174 units are planned over the next decade, and that roughly 2,688 of those units are transit‑oriented multifamily projects concentrated in the Bishop Ranch/Montvideo attendance area. "TODs don't tend to generate as many students per unit as single‑family homes," he said, though the total unit count will still generate some students in specific attendance areas.
Assistant Superintendent Danny Helman, who introduced the presentation, and trustees asked about assumptions behind student‑yield factors and how the team sampled comparable development (the consultant used recent samples from neighboring Pleasanton when local TOD sampling was unavailable).
Hoya said the forecast is most reliable in the first three to five years and becomes less certain beyond that. He recommended annual updates. "Ten years is to show you a long‑range plan . . . we highly advise that this be revisited year in and year out," he said.
What happens next: Trustees received the report, asked clarifying questions about methodology and asked staff to use the forecast to inform future facilities and budget planning. The board did not take immediate action on the forecast itself.
