District projects modest enrollment growth, recommends annual review to guide facilities planning

Cooperative Strategies presented the district’s enrollment analysis at the May 22 board meeting, forecasting a modest increase from about 10,406 students in 2023–24 to roughly 10,783 by 2033–34 under the recommended projection.

Justin Rich explained the cohort‑survival method used for projections: ten years of historical enrollment by school and grade, resident live births by ZIP code, and grade‑to‑grade survival ratios. He said birth counts for the district’s ZIP codes (90274 and 90275) have rebounded since the COVID period, which boosts projected kindergarten cohorts over the next several years.

Why it matters: enrollment projections inform long‑range facilities planning, influence how much money a bond would need to address capacity versus modernization, and affect operating budgets.

Key findings and caveats The recommended projection model (which incorporates qualitative adjustments to account for anomalies) shows a net increase of about 377 students over 10 years. Consultants also produced low, moderate and high scenarios and recommended reviewing official October enrollment data annually to check whether trends are holding and whether an updated projection is warranted.

Board members asked about site‑level variation, intradistrict transfers and how kindergarten forecasts account for births and housing turnover. Rich replied that projected kindergarten class sizes are based on resident live births in attendance‑area ZIP codes and that cohort survival ratios implicitly capture net effects such as housing turnover and transfers.

Next steps The consultant and staff recommended an annual post‑October review comparing actual enrollment to the projection and, if warranted, updating forecasts before major planning decisions. Board members and staff said the projection will be used alongside facilities priorities as the district refines bond‑related project lists and capacity planning.