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Advisers tell board state revenues are stronger than expected; COLA likely near 3%
Summary
Capital Advisors reported state general‑fund revenues outperformed estimates, creating one‑time and potential ongoing funds for K‑12; advisers said the maintenance factor paydown could free money for a COLA projected near 3 percent, while federal funding remains uncertain under a continuing resolution.
Outside advisers told the Marysville Joint Unified School District board that recent state revenue reports have improved the outlook for K‑12 funding and that one‑time payments could be used to reduce the prop‑98 maintenance factor.
Barrett Snyder of Capital Advisors Group said revenues exceeded expectations by about $3.2 billion for 2023‑24 and were currently about $1.7 billion above projections for 2024‑25, figures he cautioned are still early in the fiscal year. "Revenues have exceeded expectations to the tune of $3.2 billion in 2324," he said, adding that a combination of stronger revenues and a favorable economic backdrop is driving the trend.
Snyder explained that some of that improved revenue will be applied to a maintenance‑factor obligation tied to Proposition 98, which can result in one‑time payments to districts. He said estimates were tracking to a roughly 3 percent COLA but that final figures will be set by statutory indices and announced in April.
Caitlyn Young, Snyder’s colleague, summarized the federal outlook: the new federal fiscal year began Oct. 1 but Congress has passed a continuing resolution that funds programs at current levels through Dec. 20; larger federal changes will depend on post‑November political outcomes. "We are currently operating under a continuing resolution..." she said.
Trustees asked clarifying questions about how an inflated base or one‑time infusion could benefit Marysville, especially given the district’s declining‑enrollment peers. Staff said they will continue monitoring monthly revenue estimates and report back after the November nonpartisan legislative analysts’ report and the governor’s January budget proposal.
Advisers also flagged policy items likely to draw attention in the next legislative session, including charter‑school reform and a governor’s master plan for career education, and recommended districts track those developments.
