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OWRD brief to Bend advisory group: basin geology, century of development and looming drought stress
Summary
State water officials told the Bend Water Advisory Group that Deschutes Basin geology yields unusually stable streamflows but current low snowpack and declining precipitation mean managers expect stress and possible curtailments this summer; officials outlined monitoring, reservoir operations and the interconnected nature of surface and groundwater.
Oregon Water Resources Department staff told the City of Bend Water Advisory Group on a March 2026 session that the Deschutes Basin's volcanic geology and deep aquifer give the region unusually steady streamflows, but low snowpack and below-average precipitation this year are likely to depress natural flows and increase operational strain on reservoirs and irrigation districts.
Carolyn Suffet, central region manager at the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD), and Jeremy McGonets, the OWRD water master who has worked in the basin for decades, led the presentation. McGonets said the basin's basalt and lava formations act like a large underground sponge and springs fed from that aquifer produce flows that are "more remarkably uniform than that of any other river in the U.S. comparable with its size." He added, "Once it gets going, it's hard to stop," describing how the system's timing and outlets make the river predictable.
Why it matters: Bend and surrounding communities rely on a mix of surface and groundwater and on reservoirs such as Wickiup, Crane Prairie and Crescent Lake to manage seasonal supply. OWRD said the basin covers about 12,000 square miles and noted roughly 3,500 water-right records, about 125,000 acres of groundwater rights and about 260,000 acres of surface-water rights in the region. Staff operate roughly 60 active gauging stations to track inflows and outflows and maintain a basin accounting practice used to inform curtailment and releases.
Presenters stressed the year's hydrology is driven by total precipitation as much as snowpack. OWRD cited basin figures in the meeting that placed precipitation below normal (roughly 79% in the presentation) and snowpack substantially below typical values (the presentation cited about 33% for regional snowpack). Staff warned that most effects of a poor water year emerge in midsummer: "Most of the effects ... from this bad water year are going to happen to us in July, August, September," McGonets said, as natural flows decline and reservoir withdrawals are used to sustain diversions.
Operational consequences and monitoring: OWRD staff described recent operational problems tied to low water and reservoir drawdown, including silt and unusual aquatic weed growth that interfere with gauging and can reduce conveyance capacity. They also noted limitations created by data gaps: some diversion records and canal flow time series have missing years because older flow meters failed, complicating historical baselines.
Groundwater trends: Officials showed maps of groundwater-level declines concentrated east of the Cascades and near Redmond. OWRD staff attributed declines to a combination of climate (more dry years), pumping for irrigation and the recent lining of irrigation canals (which reduces recharge from leaky canals). OWRD hydrogeologist Joe Kemper is conducting a study to separate those influences and to establish pre-piping baseline levels; the department said those data are still being reconciled.
What comes next: Managers said short-term priorities are careful reservoir and release planning, better monitoring where gaps exist, and work on tools such as the Deschutes Basin Alternative Pathway (a winter-release exchange mechanism) to restore winter flows while accommodating irrigation. The department encouraged public and institutional collaboration and noted many regional conservation programs and partnerships already in place.
The Water Advisory Group closed with a reminder about follow-up opportunities and future agenda items, including an April meeting focused on drainage and density and a June tour.
