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PGCPS warns of 2,300-student drop next year, estimates more than $40 million in lost funding
Summary
Prince George's County Public Schools staff told a budget workgroup that a projected 2,300-student decline for 2025–26—driven chiefly by lower immigration and falling birth rates—would reduce revenue by roughly $40 million and intensify capacity and program-planning pressures, especially in the northern part of the county.
Prince George's County Public Schools officials told a board workgroup on April 1 that the district is projecting a loss of about 2,300 students for the 2025–26 school year, a decline staff said would translate into more than $40 million in reduced state and local funding.
Doug Strader, the district’s chief of accountability, said the system saw roughly a 1,400-student decline in 2024–25 and expects the larger drop next year. "We're projecting about a 2300 student decline for this upcoming school year. That equates to over $40 million when we're talking about funding," Strader said during the presentation.
The staff presentation cited two main drivers: a sharp slowdown in immigration flows that had previously supplemented enrollment, and falling birth rates. Strader said immigration played a large role in past growth and that recent border and policy changes have trimmed the district’s immigrant-student counts (he cited roughly 4,400 foreign-born students in 2023–24 decreasing to about 3,800 in 2024–25). He also pointed to broader declines in birth rates, which national data projects will reduce enrollments statewide over the next decade.
Why it matters: PGCPS uses enrollment to allocate per‑pupil funding to schools, so sudden declines change how money flows through the system. Strader illustrated that the district’s enrollment picture is uneven: many northern schools have high concentrations of immigrant students (he noted High Point at about 45% foreign-born and Northwestern about 40%), so those schools will feel larger swings than schools in other regions.
Staff warned that the projected reductions will not be felt uniformly. "It's very hard to overcome this because it's not like we have an underutilized school sitting right next to an overutilized school," Strader said, noting capital projects already planned in the north to address chronic overcrowding and that some southern schools are under capacity.
Board members and public commenters pressed staff for additional data: requests included map overlays that pair planned housing/development with school capacity, counts of homeschooled and private‑school students, and exit‑interview data to understand why families leave. Strader said the district is working with the County Department of Planning and Zoning and will provide follow-up information and a dedicated presentation from Dr. White, the chief academic officer, at the next meeting.
What happens next: The workgroup plans to examine specialty program fill rates and program‑level viability at an upcoming meeting and will form subcommittees to model fiscal and program scenarios in more detail.
Sources: Presentation by Doug Strader, Chief of Accountability, and Q&A at the Prince George's County Public Schools budget workgroup (April 1, 2026).
