Dunedin officials warn $9 million hit if state eliminates homestead property taxes

DUNEDIN, Fla. — City officials and state policy experts told residents at a public forum that proposed state changes to homestead property-tax rules could sharply reduce Dunedin’s general-fund revenue and force steep local service cuts.

"This is your property tax dollar," Jennifer K. Bramley, Dunedin’s city manager, told the audience, explaining that the city expects to collect about $18 million in property-tax revenue in fiscal 2026 and that roughly 23 cents of every property-tax dollar goes to the city. "If that revenue disappears, you'll see staffing reductions and fewer services."

The forum, moderated by Kimberly Jackson of the Institute for Strategic Policy Solutions, brought together the city manager, finance director Les Tyler, Florida League of Cities representative Charles Chapman, Realtor advocate Joe Ferrell and fire officials including Trip Bars, president of the Florida Fire Chiefs Association. Panelists emphasized that homestead exemptions and the Save Our Homes assessment cap interact to limit assessed-value growth for long‑term homeowners.

Chapman summarized the most consequential pending proposal in Tallahassee: House Joint Resolution 203. "What it initially meant was a 10‑year phaseout of homestead property taxes," Chapman said, adding that the House floor amended the measure to call for immediate elimination in one version that passed the House and then stalled in the Senate. He said city staff estimate the local revenue loss under elimination scenarios at about $9 million a year for Dunedin.

Panelists outlined what the city would likely do to balance the budget if large homestead revenue losses materialized: reduce personnel, curtail or combine hours at community centers, cut youth and senior programs, delay or cancel capital projects (for example playground replacements), and consider non‑ad valorem charges such as a fire assessment to protect emergency services.

Fire officials described concrete public‑safety risks. "Without an appropriate reliable alternative funding source, what you know and what you come to expect ... will no longer be here," Trip Bars said, warning that response times could increase from the city’s current six‑minute average to larger ranges in some models and that smaller staffing rosters would reduce training and team cohesion.

Finance director Les Tyler presented the city's budget context: Dunedin’s general fund comprises roughly 34.6% of total city revenues; property taxes make up about 35% of general‑fund revenue. The city’s parks and recreation and fire/EMS budgets are among the largest general‑fund expenditures; Tyler noted two 2026 capital items that raised the parks budget — a $2 million fishing pier and a $1.9 million aquatic project — and stressed that insurance and labor costs have risen faster than revenues in recent years.

The panel also discussed recovery options. Chapman and others said replacing homestead revenue with higher sales tax would require a substantial statewide sales‑tax increase — analysts estimate an equivalent increase in the 12–14¢ range on the dollar — and that such a change would be politically difficult. Locally targeted alternatives discussed included raising millage on non‑homestead properties, implementing a fire assessment (often based on square footage), and modest fee increases for recreation programs, though staff noted most programs do not recover full costs through fees.

Audience members asked how commercial and rental properties would be affected. Realtor Joe Ferrell said the shift would move a larger share of the tax burden onto commercial and non‑homestead owners and warned of downstream effects on rents, leases and local businesses. Officials emphasized distributional trade‑offs: many long‑term homeowners benefit from Save Our Homes protections while newcomers and non‑homestead properties would feel a larger share if homestead taxes were removed.

The forum concluded with a call to civic engagement. Panelists urged residents to review budgets, contact state legislators and, if any constitutional amendment reaches the ballot, to vote after considering the local trade‑offs. "If you value what Dunedin offers, ask yourself how much you are willing to pay for those services," Chapman said.

Next steps: city staff said the presentation will be posted online and that the panel will hold another session on April 22. Any formal change to state law would require legislative passage and, for constitutional amendments, a statewide ballot vote by Florida voters.