Enrollment up: district exceeded projections by roughly 533 students, staff say

Oakland Unified’s enrollment office reported on Jan. 14 that the district exceeded its census projections by about 533 students, a result staff estimated could translate to roughly $7 million in additional average daily attendance revenue compared with the adopted projection.

Killian Betlak, the executive director of enrollment, told the board that gains were largest at the elementary level (+264) with additional increases at middle (+65) and high school (+204) that together reversed several years of net enrollment decline. Betlak credited factors that include TK expansion, greater retention from one grade to the next and enrollment of students after some charter closures or mergers.

But Betlak also warned of concerning trends: the district’s newcomer population (students newly arrived with limited English) has fallen sharply—particularly secondary newcomers—creating what he described as a “newcomer cliff” that could continue to erode certain school programs that rely on those students. He also noted a longer‑term demographic shift: the share of Black students in the district has declined while Latino and multiracial shares have grown, and the proportion of low‑income students rose by about 7 percentage points over a decade.

Board members asked for more disaggregated analyses to understand which groups are leaving and whether policy changes (TK hubs, boundary adjustments or outreach efforts) could sustain or build enrollment. Betlak said the district’s enrollment‑stabilization work has materially helped but is currently funded largely with one‑time carryover funds that will expire, leaving the program’s future uncertain.

Ending: The board was alerted to the Feb. 8 on‑time enrollment deadline, encouraged outreach and marketing efforts, and asked the enrollment office to return with further analysis about newcomer declines and subgroup retention.