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VTSU forecasting shows small FTE decline for fall 2026 but pockets of strength in nursing and summer deposits
Summary
Vermont State University staff told trustees their new forecasting model projects about a 1.4% FTE decline for fall 2026; presenters highlighted stronger nursing deposits (+45%) and increases in in-state deposits (+14%) and said the model will be refined monthly as more data arrive.
Vermont State University’s enrollment and institutional research team presented a newly refined forecasting model to the Finance & Facilities Committee that projects a modest 1.4% decline in full-time-equivalent (FTE) students for fall 2026 while identifying program- and signal-based strengths.
President David Berg introduced Lit Tyler (chief budget officer) and Irene Aridium (AVP for institutional research), who said the model segments students into three groups — new students returning from fall 2025, continuing students, and new incoming students — and applies historic retention and program-level progression rates to project fall FTE. For new enrollments the model weights funnel activity at 30% and application declines at 70% and is updated monthly as new data arrive.
Irene Aridium noted pockets of encouraging signs: nursing deposits were reported up 45% year over year, in‑state deposits were up about 14%, and graduate deposits looked strong. She cautioned that the model is early in the cycle, that the 1.4% projection reflects a systemwide FTE view used for budgeting, and that headcount trends (including online, part-time and adult learners) can show different patterns from FTE-based measures.
Trustees pressed on the multi-year downward trend in FTE; Maurice, who oversees admissions and recruitment, said the mix of students is changing and emphasized continued institutional investments in online programs and scholarship strategies to stabilize residential enrollment. Presenters reiterated that FTE is the budgeting metric while headcount growth in flexible programs reflects mission reach.
Next steps: VTSU staff will update the revenue model monthly and refine assumptions with additional funnel and application data; trustees requested additional detail on persistence and program-level trends as the model evolves.
