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Survey shows modest public backing for operational referendum; new state aid may change ballot math
Summary
A School Perceptions poll of 1,809 respondents showed weighted support of about 61.5% for an operational referendum and a razor‑thin 51.1% for a $105 million capital plan; district leaders said a same‑day state funding announcement will require revising the public tax-impact materials before a June workshop.
The Waunakee Community School District reviewed preliminary community survey results on potential November referendums, and district and polling staff said the figures show majority support for an operational renewal but only marginal backing for the proposed capital package.
Bill Foster of School Perceptions told the board the online and paper survey produced about 1,809 responses — roughly a 19% response rate — with a statistical margin of error near ±2.35 percentage points. "If that funding were approved, the corresponding tax impact would be a mill rate increase of 17 cents, or $17 for every $100,000 of assessed value," Foster said, describing how cost information was presented to respondents.
Foster said support varied by subgroup: staff backed the operational question at about 90%, parents at 79%, and the non‑parent/non‑staff “purple” group — the largest voting bloc — at 54%. Using a weighted model (30% parents, 70% non‑parent/non‑staff, excluding staff), the firm calculated roughly 61.5% overall support for the operational referendum. For the proposed capital referendum, which the survey described at a high level as an "all‑in" $105 million plan, weighted support was about 51.1%, within the margin of error.
Board members pressed Foster on undecided voters and turnout patterns. Foster said long‑term trend data he tracks show undecided voters increasingly break against referendums, estimating that roughly 90% of undecided respondents have moved to "no" in recent comparable campaigns. He also stressed the firm does not use voter rolls in the weighting but relies on respondent characteristics and historic predictive performance.
Superintendent Dr. Brown and budget staff warned the board that new state funding news — announced the same day and later discussed by district staff — is likely to change the tax‑impact calculations used in the survey questions. Deputy business manager Ally and Assistant Superintendent Steve said an unexpected increase in special education reimbursement to approximately 50% and a $300 million equalization aid package would reduce the levy pressure assumed in the survey, meaning outreach materials and public‑facing tax examples will need revision before broader community engagement.
Next steps: staff will finalize a full commentary and a theme analysis of free‑text survey comments for the June board workshop, and the board scheduled that workshop to review detailed results and consider referendum timing and language.
