Superintendent warns of 2,100‑student‑loss math: enrollment drop could cut $2.1 million in state funding

Superintendent Dr. Trice presented preliminary enrollment projections and a budgetary analysis showing a projected drop in average daily membership that will reduce state funding for Chapel Hill‑Carrboro City Schools next year.

The superintendent and a demography consultant explained the district has seen a steady decline in school‑age population and a steep drop in kindergarten enrollment over the past several years. Preliminary estimates show the district's enrollment for the 2025–26 school year could be about 10,800 students, about 290 fewer than the prior year. At an estimated state funding level of roughly $7,500 per pupil, Dr. Trice said the district could face about a $2.1 million reduction in state revenue if those enrollment numbers hold.

Presentation slides, provided by a demography consultant, attributed much of the loss to long‑term trends (lower births and aging population), pandemic effects, out‑migration and some shifts to charter, private and home schooling. The superintendent said the district will track 40th‑day enrollment numbers and will not wait until late winter to plan; staff will survey schools' capacity and classroom usage to identify potential operational efficiencies. He framed the data as an opportunity to consider innovations and service realignment but warned the administration must plan for the fiscal reality.

Board members asked for more demographic breakdowns, including multilingual learner, special‑education and free‑and‑reduced percentages; they also asked how county funding formulas interact with per‑pupil allocations. Finance and student‑services staff were directed to return with further detail and implementation options.