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World Agricultural Outlook Board: record wheat and rice trade; palm oil disruption lifts soybean oil exports
Summary
Dr. Mar Jackowski presented the World Agricultural Outlook Board's December outlook noting near-record global wheat and rice production, a reduction in Malaysian palm oil output that tightened vegetable oil supplies and boosted soybean oil exports, and higher U.S. corn exports and ethanol use that tighten corn ending stocks.
Dr. Mar Jackowski, chair of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, presented the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and related global analyses at the December briefing.
Jackowski said global wheat production remains near a record high but was trimmed this month on smaller EU crops and lower Russian exports: "we reduced Russian exports by 1 million tons this month," he said, and noted related adjustments to EU and other export forecasts. He also reported that global rice production and trade were at record levels, with raised global rice trade (+1.2 million tons) driven by higher exports from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Brazil.
On corn, Jackowski said global production was down 1.5 million tons this month (EU and Mexico), citing drought-driven area reductions in Mexico; the U.S. corn export forecast was raised by 150 million bushels and U.S. ethanol use by 50 million bushels, which together tighten U.S. ending stocks.
A central market development identified by Jackowski was a palm oil story: recent weather in Malaysia and Indonesia created harvest loss and logistical disruption, prompting reductions in palm oil production forecasts (Malaysia lowered by about 0.5 million tons) and strengthening palm oil prices. That price shift, he said, "is creating some opportunities for other soybean oil exports from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina," and WASDE raised U.S. soybean oil export forecasts by 500 million pounds.
Jackowski also described a 1.2 million-bale global increase in cotton production (India the main driver) and noted limited changes to the U.S. cotton outlook, and provided updates across sugar, livestock (including constraints on live cattle imports from Mexico tied to a screw-worm discovery) and dairy (herd expansion leading to mixed price adjustments).
Ending: Jackowski concluded by noting personnel news (the retirement of chief meteorologist Mark Brusser) and opened the floor for questions. WASDE numbers and narrative will be available in the official published estimates and supporting tables.
