NASS, USDA economists report smaller U.S. citrus crop, larger Australian wheat and trade-driven corn and soybean adjustments

The National Agricultural Statistics Service and USDA economists presented the agency’s monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates briefing, detailing revisions to U.S. and global crop balances.

Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board, opened the briefing and said it was intended for the secretary of agriculture and USDA policy makers; he noted that the Office of Management and Budget’s statistical policy restricts public comment within 30 minutes of the release and that NASS would host a later social session for questions.

Patrick Boyle, chief of the NASS Pros Branch, summarized data sources and several U.S. commodity updates. He said all-orange production was revised down: "All orange production is down 1.3% from our previous forecast and 12.2% compared to last season," and provided specific figures for grapefruit and tangerine varieties. Boyle reported U.S. sugarcane harvested acreage at about 920,000 acres with a yield near 37.4 tons per acre, producing roughly 34.4 million tons this season, and listed a schedule of upcoming NASS reports and a post-briefing social media Q&A for additional questions.

Dr. Mark Panowski led the WASDE discussion of global supply and demand. He said global wheat production was raised by 3.4 million tons this month, with Australia’s harvest revised up substantially: "Production was raised about 7% from last month and ... up 26% from last year," reflecting better-than-expected yields in major Australian producing areas. Panowski said those increases helped lift Australia’s exports by about 1 million tons while other country revisions (Argentina, Russia, Ukraine) produced offsetting trade and stocks effects.

On U.S. wheat specifically, Panowski said the month’s adjustments focused on trade: imports were raised for durum and hard red spring while exports were lowered by 15 million bushels, lifting U.S. ending stocks and trimming the U.S. season-average price by about $0.05 per bushel.

Rice and oilseed notes: global rice production was essentially unchanged and remained at a record level; U.S. rice imports were raised and season-average U.S. rice prices were increased to reflect stronger January reported prices. Soybean balances were broadly steady globally, but Panowski said the U.S. season-average soybean price was lowered by about $0.15 per bushel and that soybean-oil biofuel use was reduced by about 150 million pounds owing to weaker-than-expected biofuel demand.

Corn and trade: Panowski described back-year revisions (Argentina up, Brazil down) and current-year shifts that tightened global supplies. He highlighted a notable downward revision to China’s corn import forecast—lowered by about 2 million tons to near 8 million—calling it the lowest since 2019/20 and a factor tightening global ending stocks.

Other commodities: cotton production rose modestly overall with country-level adjustments; sugar production and domestic deliveries in the U.S. were adjusted, and Panowski explained how March calculations determine Mexico’s final export limit (the briefing reverted Mexico to the December export limit, yielding a 15% stocks-to-use ratio for March). For livestock and dairy, Panowski reported higher beef output (about +120 million pounds) from increased weights, modest pork adjustments, mixed poultry changes based on hatchery data, and a reduction to milk production forecasts (about −600 million pounds).

The briefing emphasized that many changes reflected updated harvest data, trade flows and demand-side adjustments rather than large shifts in planting intentions. NASS staff reiterated that the published estimates on the NASS website are the official record and encouraged viewers to consult the full reports for tables and methodological notes; a post-briefing stat chat on NASS social channels was scheduled for later in the day.

What happens next: NASS will post the full Crop Production and WASDE tables and supporting documentation online; staff will accept follow-up questions by phone and email and planned outreach (stat chat) will address technical follow-ups. The briefing closed with presenters thanking the audience and attendees.