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NASS briefing: U.S. cotton production rises while yields fall; Florida citrus down after Hurricane Milton
Summary
At a December NASS briefing, agency staff reported a U.S. cotton forecast of 14.3 million bales (up from the prior forecast and 18.1% above 2023) but a yield of 792 pounds per acre, the lowest since 2015; NASS also reported Florida citrus losses tied to mid-October rains from Hurricane Milton.
Patrick Bole, chief of the NASS crops branch, told a Dec. briefing of the Agricultural Statistics Board that the December crop production estimates show higher cotton output but notably lower yields.
"This month's forecast at 14.3 million bales is up 1.5% from the previous forecast and 18.1% compared to 2023," Bole said, adding that the U.S. cotton yield of 792 pounds per acre is "the lowest yield since 2015." He also cited weekly crop-progress data showing that by Nov. 24 some 84% of the cotton crop had been harvested, ahead of the five-year average.
The nut graf: The NASS presentation combined objective field measurement programs and producer- and industry-based surveys to produce December estimates. Bole said NASS measured 1,623 Florida citrus groves in mid-November and surveyed more than 400 active cotton gins to gather ginned cotton data and expectations.
Bole summarized commodity-level changes. For sugarcane he said harvested acres were unchanged from the prior forecast and down about 6.1% from the prior year, with yield at 37.8 tons per acre and total production near 34.9 million tons. On citrus, he said the December forecasts incorporated the effects of Hurricane Milton's heavy mid-October rains in central Florida: "All orange production is forecast to be down 5.2% or 3 million boxes from October," and overall orange boxes were down about 6 million boxes from last season.
Bole also listed upcoming releases and outreach: a census of aquaculture next week; later December reports on cotton ginnings, cattle on feed, hogs and pigs, and egg prices; and the January 10 monthly crop production and the 2024 annual summary. NASS planned a 1 p.m. Eastern "Stat Chat" session on X (Twitter) for follow-up questions.
Ending: The briefing closed with Bole handing the presentation to the World Agricultural Outlook Board chair for a global supply-and-demand review. The full reports and official published estimates are available on the NASS website; NASS staff said audiences should consult published estimates if discrepancies appear between the briefing and the official record.
