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World outlook: Australia’s big wheat crop lifts global supplies; U.S. export forecasts rise
Summary
The World Outlook board raised global wheat production by 9.3 million tons led by Australia and adjusted several country balance sheets; the U.S. saw higher corn and soybean export/crush expectations, with U.S. corn exports raised 100 million bushels for the new crop year.
Dr. Mark Jinowski, chair of the World Outlook board, summarized global supply and demand updates that follow NASS’s domestic revisions. "Big increase in global wheat supplies this month, up 9.3 million tons," Jinowski said, attributing most of the change to larger crops among major exporters and especially to Australia’s strong August rainfall and satellite vegetative‑health signals.
Wheat and trade impacts Jinowski said higher global wheat production translated into an upward revision of world trade and higher global ending stocks; he raised U.S. HRW exports by 25 million bushels and lowered the U.S. season average wheat price by $0.20 per bushel based on observed prices.
Rice and corn For rice, Jinowski described small area changes and higher beginning stocks driven by lower India back‑year exports and higher U.S. back‑year stocks; U.S. imports were raised to a record 49.3 million hundredweight and new‑crop ending stocks rose to about 53.44 million hundredweight. For corn, Brazil’s harvest raised its production by about 3 million tons but much of that crop was retained domestically; U.S. corn exports for the new crop year were increased by 100 million bushels reflecting a strong export pace and slower shipments from some competitors.
Soybeans, cotton, sugar, livestock and dairy Jinowski said global soybean ending stocks were down about 1 million tons, while U.S. soybean crush was raised 15 million bushels and U.S. ending stocks were raised 10 million bushels; he lowered the U.S. season average soybean price to $10.00 per bushel. On cotton, he highlighted stronger consumption in China and country‑level revisions. For sugar, he pointed to a roughly 220,000 short‑ton reduction in expected U.S. imports from Mexico tied to access calculations. In livestock and dairy, he reported modest revisions—lower 2025 beef and pork production on slaughter timing and lighter weights, higher broiler production on observed hatchery trends, and raised U.S. milk production forecasts for 2025–26 with downward revisions to dairy product prices.
What’s next Jinowski cautioned that some international forecasts depend on harvest progress and continued favorable weather (Australia wheat, parts of the Black Sea). The World Outlook board will publish updated tables; market participants will monitor export flows and subsequent monthly updates.
