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NASS updates: beef production raised; turkey and dairy forecasts adjusted
Summary
NASS updated meat and dairy projections in its December briefing: beef production for 2025–26 was raised (driven largely by heavier carcass weights), turkey production for 2026 was reduced because of HPAI impacts at breeding operations, and some dairy product price forecasts were lowered.
NASS officials adjusted several livestock and dairy estimates in the December briefing, citing updated slaughter, production and disease reports.
Dr. Mark Jinowski summarized the livestock changes: "Beef production raised for both 2025 and 2026 this year," reflecting heavier weights, while pork production was pulled back slightly for 2025 based on fourth-quarter slaughter data. He also flagged risks to turkey production next year from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks affecting breeding operations and said those outbreaks were a reason for a reduced turkey production forecast for 2026.
Why it matters: revisions to meat production and dairy product forecasts influence supply expectations, feed demand and price outlooks for processors and consumers. Jinowski also described adjusted U.S. meat trade forecasts (including raised beef import forecasts tied to tariff removals) and said updated census trade data had been incorporated for several commodities.
On dairy, Jinowski said milk production for 2025 was unchanged while the 2026 production forecast was pulled back slightly; product-price forecasts were mixed, with earlier reductions to butter and a new reduction to cheese price forecasts for 2025. He summarized the 2026 all‑milk price projection at $18.75 per 100 pounds and observed that tightening margins could approach Dairy Margin Protection triggers.
NASS signaled it will incorporate the forthcoming hogs and pigs report and continue to monitor HPAI developments and updated slaughter data in subsequent releases. The agency emphasized that official published tables are the authoritative source for final values.
