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WASDE raises global wheat; Argentina forecast lifted on excellent conditions
Summary
WASDE updates raised global wheat production by about 9 million tons this month, with Argentina’s wheat crop increased roughly 9% on excellent timely rains and low heat stress; global ending stocks rose about 3.4 million tons, shifting trade flows.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates presented at the NASS briefing showed higher global wheat production and larger ending stocks, driven in part by a sizeable upward revision for Argentina's crop.
Dr. Mark Jinowski (identified in the briefing as chair of the world output board) said global wheat production was "raised again this month, almost 9 million tons" with record or near-record crops in several major producers. He emphasized Argentina’s growing conditions—timely rainfall and minimal heat stress—helped push Argentina’s forecast higher. "Production raised this month up 9% from last month," Jinowski said, while cautioning that harvest in some Argentine regions was still in early stages and could move again as data arrive.
Why it matters: larger global production and higher ending stocks can put downward pressure on wheat prices and influence export competitiveness. Jinowski noted the increase in global wheat trade mainly reflects higher exports from Canada, Australia and Argentina, partly offset by lower exports from Ukraine and Turkey.
The briefing presented regional details: StatCan final data raised Canada’s output, the EU‑27 forecast increased on updated government data, and Russia and India also recorded larger spring wheat production and yields. Jinowski said global ending stocks were up roughly 3.4 million tons this month, spreading the additional supply across multiple exporters.
Jinowski also flagged that Argentina’s harvest was still in early stages in some high-yielding provinces (Santa Fe, Córdoba and Buenos Aires), so the agency would continue to monitor harvest progress and adjust forecasts if warranted. The WASDE presentation combined these global supply changes with updated trade flows and balance-sheet adjustments across other grains and oilseeds.
