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NASS: U.S. soybean yield at record high while Brazil's expected record crop pressures U.S. exports
Summary
NASS reported a record U.S. soybean yield (53 bu/acre) and flagged that a record or near‑record soybean crop in Brazil will boost global supplies and reduce U.S. export opportunities, prompting higher U.S. ending stocks and lower export forecasts.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported a record U.S. soybean yield for 2025 and numbers that, combined with a forecasted record soybean crop in Brazil, point to higher global supplies and downward pressure on U.S. exports and prices.
"Planted acreage at 81.2 million acres is up just one‑tenth of a percent compared to previous estimate, but down 6.9% from 2024," Anthony Pryin said, adding that "the 2025 average yield is estimated at a record high 53 bushels per acre." U.S. soybean production was estimated at about 4.26 billion bushels.
Dr. Mark Jinowski of the World Agricultural Outlook Board said Brazil is on track for a very large crop: "Brazil soybean production in particular set to hit a new record high there," citing timely rainfall, benign temperatures and favorable in‑season indicators in major producing regions.
Market implications stated by NASS and WAOB: higher Brazilian production and exports will reduce some U.S. export opportunities, contributing to an upward revision of U.S. ending stocks and a small downward revision in the U.S. season‑average soybean price. NASS also reported higher crush forecasts in the U.S. and Brazil that reflect stronger domestic meal demand and processing activity.
Officials noted data sources: farmer reports, objective field surveys, cotton‑gin reports and USDA administrative records. NASS reiterated that the official published estimates are the authoritative record and invited questions via agency contacts and a scheduled social‑media session.
