NASS September forecast shows record U.S. corn crop, higher soybean yields

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its September 2025 crop production estimates, projecting a record U.S. corn crop and higher soybean yields if the forecasts are realized.

Anthony Pryin, acting chief of the crops branch at NASS, said planted corn acreage was raised to 98.7 million acres, up about 1.47 million acres from the August estimate, with harvested area just over 90 million acres. "As of September 1st, yield is forecast at 186.7 bushels per acre," Pryin said. "And if realized, this would represent a record high corn yields for the US." NASS put U.S. corn production at 16.8 billion bushels, a level Pryin described as a record high and roughly 1.47 billion bushels (9.6%) above 2023.

Why it matters: larger U.S. production and higher harvested area affect global supply estimates, exportable supplies and marketing decisions for processors and exporters.

NASS methods and revisions Pryin outlined the data behind the estimates: an operator‑reported a‑yield survey (sample size 7,600; collection Aug. 30–Sept. 9), the first objective yield survey of the year for corn and soybeans (about 3,100 fields sampled Aug. 25–Sept. 1), satellite NDVI imagery through Aug. 28, and review of FSA certified acreage. He said the August–September reviews of FSA acres led to acreage increases for several crops and that the objective surveys and satellite models are used to corroborate producer reports.

Soybeans and cotton NASS raised planted soybean acreage to 81.1 million acres (an increase of 210,000 acres from August). The soybean yield forecast is 53.5 bushels per acre, producing a 4.3 billion‑bushel crop; Pryin said that yield would be a record high for U.S. soybeans if realized. "As of August 31st, 65% of the acreage was rated in good to excellent condition," he said.

For cotton, NASS reported planted area near 9.3 million acres (up about 19,000 acres from August but down 16.9% from 2024), a yield forecast of 861 pounds per acre and production of about 13.2 million bales; NASS noted Missouri is forecast to post a record yield.

Other crops and California specifics Pryin gave first seasonal estimates for chickpeas, dry peas and lentils and reported increases for peanuts and certain pulse crops. He said rice planted and harvested area rose slightly from August, with a yield of 7,559 pounds per acre and production modestly above the August forecast but down from 2024. In California, navel orange production was forecast at about 1.66 million tons (roughly 40 million boxes) and walnut production at about 710,000 tons.

Process note and next steps Pryin reiterated OMB statistical‑release guidance and said agency officials would refrain from public comment within 30 minutes of the report release. NASS will host a social media Q&A at 1:30 p.m. Eastern and will publish the official estimates on its website; users should refer to the official published estimates for authoritative numbers.

The NASS briefing concluded with the handoff to the World Outlook board for global balance‑sheet updates.