NASS December briefing: U.S. cotton yield near record, Florida citrus moved to quarterly reporting

The National Agricultural Statistics Service released its December crop production estimates and related balance-sheet updates, reporting a U.S. cotton yield forecast of 929 pounds per acre and production of 14.3 million bales while announcing a change to how Florida citrus will be reported.

Anthony Pryin, acting chief of the NASS crops branch, said the agency used a December 1–3 cotton jinning survey to set this month’s cotton numbers and that the survey contacted 479 gins. "This month we conducted our cotton jinning survey. Data from this survey was used to set today's cotton estimates. For this survey we contacted 479 gins," Pryin said. He told listeners the cotton yield forecast of 929 pounds per acre is up 10 pounds from the November forecast and represents the second-highest U.S. yield on record, behind 2022.

Why it matters: cotton production and yield affect farm income, textile markets and export expectations. NASS’s production estimate of 14.3 million bales fell within the range of pre-report industry expectations but was slightly higher than some published forecasts, a comparison Pryin displayed to contextualize the official number.

Pryin highlighted state-level results and noted several states reached record yields this year: "You will notice a pound sign beside the yield number in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Tennessee indicating record high cotton yields for those states this year," he said. The briefing showed increases in the Southeast and Delta states and declines in parts of the southern Plains compared with last month’s state estimates.

Separately, Pryin told the audience that December’s report does not include Florida citrus production estimates because of changes in the external funding that previously supported December citrus estimates. "Citrus production estimates for the state of Florida are not included in the report," he said, and added that NASS will publish Florida and all program-state citrus estimates quarterly beginning Jan. 12, 2026. NASS staff said users should consult the official published estimates when discrepancies arise and that the agency will host a social-media Q&A at 1:30 p.m. Eastern on the day of the release.

The briefing reiterated OMB guidance for principal federal economic indicators: Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board, reminded the live audience that policymaking officials should refrain from public comment about report content within 30 minutes of release. Honig also introduced guests attending the briefing, including USDA economists who were present to hear the data.

The NASS reports and full datasets are available on the agency’s website; the agency also listed a set of upcoming reports and schedule adjustments that include a cluster of releases on Jan. 20, 2026.