U.S. cattle inventory at 86.7 million, lowest since 1951, NASS reports; sheep and goat numbers change little

The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that U.S. all-cattle and calves totaled 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025, down about 0.6 percent from a year earlier and the lowest Jan. 1 inventory since 1951, NASS livestock branch chief Travis Ail said.

NASS said the agency surveyed roughly 36,100 operations in all 50 states for the January cattle survey, with data collection from Dec. 31 through Jan. 15 by mail, internet, telephone and in-person interviews. Ail said the 2024 annual calf crop was revised down slightly—about 0.7 percent—putting the estimate at roughly 33.6 million head.

"This is the lowest inventory since January 1 of 1951," Ail said, summarizing the long-term context for the current cattle cycle. He also noted drought remained a material influence on herd dynamics: NASS snapshots showed moderate drought around 33 percent of the U.S. and severe drought near 10 percent at year-end 2024, with the Southwest, Mountain West and central portions of the country most affected.

The report included class-level details: beef cows were about 27.864 million head and milk cows about 9.3493 million head. Replacement heifers were about 4.7 million (down roughly 1 percent), and milk replacement heifers about 3.9 million (down about 0.9 percent). Steers and bulls 500 pounds and over, and calves under 500 pounds, were reported with their respective counts and year-over-year changes in the NASS release.

NASS presented slaughter-composition metrics for 2024: all-cow slaughter made up 17.9 percent of total slaughter, down from 20.5 percent in 2023, while steer slaughter accounted for 32.0 percent, up from 31.1 percent. Ail said the relatively elevated share of female slaughter historically suppresses herd expansion and is a factor slowing recovery in inventories.

Cattle-on-feed data showed feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more held about 11.823 million head (down about 0.9 percent), and NASS placed total cattle on feed at about 14.3 million head on Jan. 1, 2025. Calculated feeder-cattle supply was roughly 24.6 million head (down about 0.5 percent from 2024), Ail said.

On sheep and goats, NASS surveyed roughly 25,000 operations and reported Jan. 1, 2025 all sheep and lambs at about 5.55 million head, up about 0.3 percent from 2024. The top five states for sheep and lamb inventories were listed as Texas, California, Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. For goats, NASS reported about 2.265 million all goats and kids (up 1.5 percent) and a 2024 kid crop around 1.156 million head (down about 0.5 percent).

Lance honing, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board, opened the session and reminded viewers that, in line with Office of Management and Budget and statistical release procedures, the cattle report is a controlled release and public questions would not be taken on the livestream.

Ail also previewed scheduled NASS publications for February, including agricultural prices, peanut prices, crop production, farms and land in farms, cattle-on-feed and milk production, and he noted the 101st annual Agricultural Outlook Forum scheduled Feb. 27–28 in Crystal City with in-person and virtual attendance options. All final reports and tables are posted on the NASS website.

The briefing concluded with no formal votes or actions; NASS staff are available for follow-up by phone or email as noted in the release.