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USDA WASDE: modest global wheat shifts, tighter U.S. corn supplies and higher soy oil biofuel demand
Summary
At the WASDE briefing, the World Outlook Board raised U.S. wheat exports and trimmed some foreign supplies while cutting U.S. new-crop corn production; soybean crush and soybean-oil demand for biofuels were raised, and EU rapeseed production was lifted, altering global oilseed trade dynamics.
Dr. Mark Jakenowski, chair of the World Outlook Board, presented the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) portion of the briefing, summarizing global balance-sheet changes across wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, cotton, sugar and livestock. He said the U.S. old-crop wheat balance reflected stronger exports (U.S. exports were raised by 25 million bushels) while global wheat production showed country offsets—Canada down and the EU up in part because of higher production in Romania.
Jakenowski highlighted the Black Sea region analysis: dry planting last fall, beneficial May precipitation that improved prospects in much of Russia and parts of Ukraine, and divergent vegetative health across the region that led to modest net global wheat changes but important regional offsets.
On corn, he said old-crop U.S. exports were unusually strong—potentially a record above 2.7 billion bushels—but the new-crop 2025–26 production forecast was reduced by about 115 million bushels based on the June acreage report, tightening supply and trimming use in places. For soybeans, the briefing raised old-crop exports and also raised crush (by 50 million bushels) driven by biofuel demand, while lowering new-crop U.S. exportable supplies by about 70 million bushels because of greater domestic use and higher South American supplies.
The WASDE team raised EU rapeseed production by 2.6 million metric tons, driven by stronger outturns in several European countries, and noted that a rebound in rape production could reduce EU soybean import needs and shift global oilseed trade flows. China’s cotton crop was raised by about 1 million tons based on favorable early-season conditions; Brazil’s large corn and soybean second-crop outcomes also influenced global tables.
Jakenowski described rice adjustments that reduced U.S. old-crop exports modestly and tightened ending stocks, and he summarized livestock and dairy moves—small near-term adjustments to beef, pork and poultry forecasts and higher milk production and dairy export strength—culminating in an all-milk price projection for 2025 around $22 per hundredweight.
