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WASDE overview: NASS reports record rice crop in India, Brazil soybean increase and reduced China wheat import forecast
Summary
At the April WASDE/WASD briefing, NASS said India's rice crop rose 2 million tons to a record, Brazil's soybean output was revised up 1.5 million tons, and China's wheat imports were cut by 3 million tons; the agency also adjusted trade and ending-stock estimates across corn, cotton, sugar, meat and dairy.
Dr. Mark Jenowski, introduced at the briefing as chair of the WASD panel, presented NASS's monthly balance-sheet updates across major commodities and trade flows. He framed the briefing as an "old-crop" review ahead of the new-crop rollouts in May and cited incorporation of recent NASS data (stocks reports, quarterly hogs and pigs) and international data.
On rice, Jenowski said the month's main story was India: "This would be the ninth consecutive record crop," he said, and NASS raised India production by 2 million tons. He added that India now surpasses China as the world's largest rice producer, and that the large Indian crop and absence of export controls supported higher global rice exports and stronger use in several Sub-Saharan African countries.
Jenowski described a 3 million-ton reduction in NASS's China wheat import forecast to 3.5 million tons and modest export declines for several exporters, noting the result was a slightly higher global ending-stock position and no change to the U.S. season-average wheat price.
For corn, he said global changes were small but that stronger U.S. export competitiveness led NASS to raise U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels this month, tightening U.S. ending stocks by roughly 75 million bushels. On soybeans, NASS raised Brazil production by 1.5 million tons based on disappearance and crush data; global crush was raised 2 million tons and U.S. crush was increased 10 million bushels.
The presenter also flagged trade and tariff effects for cotton and meats. He said Argentina's cotton forecast was trimmed by 200,000 bales while China's crop estimates continued to be raised; tariff measures (10% and higher tariffs on China) and shifting global demand led NASS to lower cotton consumption and trim U.S. exports by 100,000 bales, increasing U.S. ending stocks to near the largest levels since 2008 (excluding 2019). He noted beef exports were reduced by about 135 million pounds, largely reflecting lower shipments to China tied to tariff and non-tariff barriers and lapses in plant registrations.
On dairy, Jenowski said milk production was raised mainly because of revised cow inventory numbers and modest gains in milk per cow, while dairy product prices and class prices were lowered; NASS reduced some skim-solids exports and cited a $0.50-per-cwt reduction in the all-milk price to roughly $21.10 per hundredweight, down $1.51 year-over-year.
Jenowski emphasized that the briefing numbers reflect NASS forecasts and should be compared with the official published estimates on the NASS website. The briefing closed with scheduling notes for the May rollouts and related NASS reports.
