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NASS July forecast: U.S. winter wheat yield rises but production falls as harvested area drops
Summary
The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s July Crop Production report projects a U.S. winter wheat yield of 54.2 bushels per acre—the second-highest if realized—but production is forecast at 1.35 billion bushels, down from June mainly because harvested area was reduced by about 888,000 acres.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) said in its July Crop Production briefing that the U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 54.2 bushels per acre, up roughly half a bushel from the June estimate and about 4.8% above 2024. If realized, NASS said, that yield would be the second-highest on record. (Anthony Pryleman, acting chief of the NASS crops branch).
NASS reported production of 1.35 billion bushels for winter wheat, a 2.6% decline from the June forecast. Pryleman attributed the month-to-month decrease mainly to a reduction in harvested area of about 888,000 acres since the June acreage report, even as yield expectations ticked upward.
The briefing described the data sources behind the estimates: an operator-reported yield survey for barley, oats and many wheat growing areas (sample size just over 4,700, data collected June 28–July 7) and an objective yield survey for winter wheat that sampled 1,155 fields June 24–30, with field samples processed in the NASS objective yield lab. Pryleman said 58% of those objective-yield samples had been processed at the time of the briefing, behind last June’s 70% but comparable to several prior years.
State-by-state comparisons were mixed, NASS said. Illinois, Michigan and Missouri are forecast at record-high winter wheat yields; several Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states—Nebraska, South Dakota and Montana—showed notable year-over-year declines. NASS provided maps comparing this month’s state averages with both its June forecast and last year’s outcomes.
Pryleman also presented first forecasts for other spring wheat (other spring wheat production at 504 million bushels, down about 7.1% from 2024) and durum (79.7 million bushels, down modestly from 2024). First-offer forecasts were given for barley (yield 77.1 bu./acre; production near 148 million bu.), oats (yield 75.5 bu./acre) and flue-cured tobacco (harvested area 126,000 acres; yield and production up year over year, though overall tobacco acreage remains well below historic levels).
On specialty crops, NASS gave a second forecast for California almonds at 3 billion pounds (up 7.1% from May and 9.9% from 2024), citing mild spring temperatures and lower pest pressure, and an apricot forecast of nearly 31,000 tons (California and Washington are the two estimating states; California accounts for about 91% of U.S. production). NASS provided final-season estimates for citrus, noting a 1-million-box increase in California compared with June that partly offset a 375-million-box decline in Florida year over year.
NASS emphasized that its briefing materials aim to match the official published estimates and directed listeners to the official report online; speakers also noted Office of Management and Budget statistical policy that restricts public comment on the report’s content within 30 minutes of release.
