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NASS citrus outlook: U.S. orange forecast down year-over-year; Florida tangerine crop lowest on record
Summary
At an April NASS briefing, Patrick Bole reported U.S. orange production forecast at 2.46 million tons—up from last month but down 8.2% from last season—and said Florida tangerines are forecast at 19,000 tons, the lowest on record for the state.
Patrick Bole, chief of the crops branch at the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), told a livestreamed April briefing that NASS enumerators measured 745 citrus groves in Florida and used weekly utilization data from the Florida Citrus Administrative Committee to compile the latest estimates. "All orange production is forecasted 2.46 million tons. That's up 1.6% from last month, but down 8.2% compared to last season," Bole said.
Bole gave a commodity-by-commodity summary. He said non-Valencia oranges were up 2.1% from last month but down 1.9% year-over-year, while Valencia varieties rose slightly month-to-month but were more than 22% below last season. Grapefruit production was forecast at 319,000 tons—"up 6.7% from the last forecast, but down 2.7% from last season," he said. Lemon production increased 3.8% from last month's forecast and was 12.5% higher than the previous season.
On tangerines, Bole said U.S. production was just over 1 million tons (up 4.1% from March, down 4.5% year-over-year). He highlighted the Florida outlook: "The forecast for Florida for tangerines is at 19,000 tons, which would be the lowest tangerine production on record for Florida." Bole said estimates incorporated both field measurements and packing/processing data.
Bole also listed near-term NASS reports and outreach: cattle on feed, hemp, egg prices, and the 2022 census data for American Samoa and Guam in the second half of April; the May schedule for non-citrus fruit and nuts and county row-crop estimates; and a fully virtual NASS data-users meeting on April 29. He noted a NASS social media event at 1 p.m. Eastern to take additional questions and directed listeners to the official published estimates if any discrepancy appears between the briefing and the released reports.
The briefing followed Office of Management and Budget guidance on release of principal federal economic indicator reports; NASS said it would not take live questions during the 30 minutes after release. The NASS citrus numbers and full reports are posted on the agency's website.
