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CREC adopts human services, Medicaid and childcare caseload and cost estimates
Summary
The revenue estimating conference adopted updated human services and Medicaid cost estimates (roughly $1.1B gross change) and child care caseload/cost projections; agencies indicated portions of increased child care costs may require general fund support in FY27.
Senate Fiscal Agency and partner fiscal staff presented updated caseload and cost estimates for human services, Medicaid and child development/childcare programs. John Maxwell and colleagues summarized gross changes from FY25 enacted levels: roughly $1.1 billion gross for human services with a modest GFGP allocation and about $1.05 billion gross for Medicaid with specified GFGP shares; out‑year adjustments were smaller and allocated between Medicaid and human services.
Michael Syracuse presented child care caseloads and costs: a current caseload of roughly 29,300 cases at about $1,670 per case, producing an estimated FY26 increase of $43.9 million in program costs covered by federal carryover, and a FY27 caseload increase projected at 2,000 cases with an estimated total FY27 cost increase of about $88.1 million, of which approximately $76.9 million would likely require general fund/general purpose dollars.
A motion to adopt the human services and Medicaid estimates and the childcare estimates was made and approved by voice vote.
