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State demographers: Michigan faces pronounced aging, falling births and a sharp one‑year labor force drop
Summary
Michigan demographers told the consensus revenue conference that five years of natural decrease, falling births and rapid growth in older cohorts have contributed to a one‑year loss of about 93,000 workers and will affect elder‑care demand, school enrollment and long‑term tax bases.
Wayne Rourke, Michigan’s labor market information director, and Jacqueline Butler, state demographer, presented linked labor‑market and population findings to the revenue conference, stressing the fiscal implications for school membership counts, workforce supply and long‑term revenues.
Rourke said payroll jobs have been essentially flat and the unemployment rate has hovered near 5%, but household employment has fallen, producing a roughly 93,000 reduction in Michigan’s labor force over the past year. He attributed the decline to both demographic factors (retirements among baby boomers) and economic headwinds, with gains concentrated in health care and state/local government and losses in manufacturing and trade.
Butler described longer‑term demographic shifts: Michigan has experienced five consecutive years of natural decrease (deaths exceeding births), births have roughly halved since mid‑twentieth‑century peaks, and the state’s median age remains above the national average. She warned these trends could reduce the working‑age share of the population, increase demand for elder care and put downward pressure on tax bases unless sustained net migration offsets natural decreases.
Both presenters urged attention to 2030 census preparations, noting declining federal survey response rates and the importance of local address‑update (LUCA) operations to protect federal and state funding formulas.
