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Consultants present Fernley's first travel-demand model; study flags roundabout, 'mouse-hole' and Farm District pressure
Summary
Wood Rogers presented Fernley's new travel-demand model showing steep AADT growth by 2050 under no-build scenarios; Nevada Pacific Parkway would reduce but not eliminate roundabout congestion, a downtown bottleneck (the "mouse hole") remains problematic, and portions of Farm District Road may need widening. Consultants will follow with intersection-level operations recommendations.
Consultants from Wood Rogers briefed the Fernley Planning Commission on the city's first travel-demand model and initial findings for three state-owned corridors: Farm District Road, Main Street and 95A.
Project manager Brian Gamp said the model uses 2022 as a base year, calibrates against existing traffic counts and then tests future 2050 scenarios under two growth assumptions: a moderate scenario (roughly 50,000 residents) and a high-growth scenario (about 75,000). The team also tested a 2050 roadway network that assumes five plausible new connections such as the Nevada Pacific Parkway and a Red Hawk Ranch link.
The model projects large increases in average annual daily traffic (AADT) under a 2050 no-build scenario. Gamp showed the Main Street segment north of the roundabout increasing from about 27,000 AADT (2022) to roughly 45,000 in 2050 with no new connections, and falling to the low 30-thousands under a moderate scenario that includes Nevada Pacific Parkway. "Nevada Pacific Parkway helps. It doesn't alleviate it," he said, summarizing that the parkway shifts but does not eliminate congestion at the roundabout.
Consultants identified the downtown "mouse hole" (Main Street west of downtown) as a persistent constraint across scenarios and said Farm District Road south of the roundabout may require localized widening between the roundabout and Cottonwood to accommodate future demand. They ran alternative-connectivity scenarios (Stock Lane across the canal, a Wadsworth connector to I-80, and a Cottonwood'to'Miller extension) and reported each would attract trips but none alone would solve downtown bottlenecks.
Gamp said the team is now moving to operations analysis (peak-hour intersection and turning-movement work) and will bring alternatives and prioritized recommendations, with scheduling and public outreach to follow. Commissioners asked about data sources used for the 2022 base year, the model's calibration targets (consultants cited NDOT guidelines and a typical 5% target across trunk routes), and how the model would be used for large rezoning or development scenarios; consultants said the model can analyze major land-use changes and produce link-level impacts but is not intended for parcel-by-parcel microanalysis.
Several commissioners raised school-route safety at the Cottonwood/95A intersection and urged the city to coordinate with NDOT on possible speed-zone and design changes. Staff and consultants said operations-level recommendations and safety analyses for key intersections are forthcoming, and that funding will be required from NDOT, grants or local sources to implement major improvements.
Next steps: the consultant team will complete operations analyses for prioritized intersections (including the roundabout and Cottonwood/95A), solicit public input on draft recommendations, and publish a draft final report for stakeholder review.
