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Regional transportation plan presentation outlines four scenarios; demographer projects about 15,000 new residents for Modesto by 2049
Summary
A consultant described four growth and transit scenarios in the Stanislaus regional transportation plan and said a University of the Pacific demographer projects roughly 15,000 new people and about 11,500 jobs in Modesto over 20 years; councilmembers pressed for packet access and clarity on job types and methodology.
A consultant for the Stanislaus Council of Governments told the Modesto City Council on March 3 that the 2026 regional transportation plan will focus on vehicle miles traveled, greenhouse gas targets and land-use connections, and presented four draft scenarios for how the county could grow through 2049.
"For Modesto, which my eyes aren't about, 15,000 new people are expected to move to Modesto," Michael Schmidt of Kimley Horn Associates said, citing work by a demographer from the University of the Pacific and describing an accompanying estimate of roughly 11,500 jobs.
Schmidt described four scenarios—business-as-usual, mixed-use with increased transit, mixed-use with a jobs focus, and a scenario prioritizing accessory dwelling units—and said each would vary the mix of investments in bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure, bus rapid transit, and voter-approved major roadway improvements. He identified two pilot community enhancement zones (McHenry and Paradise corridors) to test feasibility for concentrated mixed-use development.
Council members asked procedural and substantive questions. Council member Nick Bavaro said he had not seen the presentation in the council packet and asked for the materials to be provided for review. Bavaro and others pressed Schmidt on what kinds of jobs the forecast anticipates and whether those would be living-wage or skilled positions. "It's more of a market-driven assessment," Schmidt said, noting the demographer distributes a state-set regional total among cities based on local plans and other inputs.
Schmidt also noted outreach tools including an interactive website, a survey, an interactive map and a lobby table; he said the project expects to select a preferred scenario in June and a recommended plan by August.
Why it matters: the RTP sets priorities that determine the region’s transportation investments over decades, affects compliance with state greenhouse gas and air-quality mandates, and guides where housing and transit investment are concentrated.
Next steps: the consultant encouraged public engagement via the project website and the lobby table; the council did not take immediate action on the plan at the March 3 meeting.
