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Poll shows tentative, margin‑of‑error support for Mount Diablo Unified bond; board weighs vetting process
Summary
FM3 Research reported Feb. 25 that two bond options — $251 million and $529 million — tested near the 55% passage threshold; board members discussed further vetting, stakeholder outreach and a possible June resolution if the board decides to proceed.
A district‑commissioned poll presented at the Mount Diablo Unified board meeting found tentative support for a facilities bond but placed both tested proposals near the 55% threshold required to pass.
Lucia Del of FM3 Research told trustees the survey of 617 likely voters found initial support of roughly 54% for a $251 million bond and 53% for a $529 million bond, both within the survey’s margin of error. Support rose to about 56% after positive pro‑measure messaging and fell to about 53% following critical statements presented in the survey. Del characterized the finding as “right there on the margin” and recommended further vetting and outreach.
Key details from the poll presentation: the $251 million scenario was modeled at about $18 per $100,000 assessed value; the $529 million scenario modeled about $38 per $100,000. Voters in the sample rated teacher recruitment/retention, maintaining local control of funds, removing asbestos/mold and safe drinking water among the top priorities for bond spending.
Jeremy Hower of Team Civics outlined a three‑phase pathway should the board choose to move forward: additional feasibility testing and stakeholder vetting, development of a final project list and ballot language, and independent community campaigning if a measure qualifies for the ballot. He noted the August 7 deadline to place a measure on the November ballot and emphasized the legal separation between district informational vetting and an independent campaign.
Board reaction: Several trustees described the results as encouraging but urged caution given current political volatility and turnout uncertainties. Trustee Lawrence said the poll’s close result made him reflect on asking for a larger amount next time; other trustees emphasized the need for broad stakeholder outreach and careful calendar planning. One trustee noted concerns about civic climate and voter turnout this November but did not block further vetting.
What the board did: No vote to place a bond on the ballot was taken Feb. 25; staff and the consultants were directed to continue vetting and to return with recommendations and a timeline for the board to consider in coming months.
— Reporting from the Mount Diablo Unified School District board meeting on Feb. 25, 2026.
