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Tulare County CAP annual report: unincorporated population and VMT fall, staff says no recent rise in emissions
Summary
County staff told the planning commission that the 2024–25 Climate Action Plan annual report shows a decline in unincorporated population and in vehicle miles traveled, and that the county has not seen a sustained rise in greenhouse‑gas emissions over the past decade.
Emily Gage, project processor with the Tulare County Resource Management Agency, presented the 2024–25 Climate Action Plan annual progress report to the planning commission on April 8.
Gage said Department of Finance data show the unincorporated county population declined by about 10,350 people (9.3%) from 2015 to 2025 and that occupied housing units in unincorporated areas fell by 178 units over the same decade. The CAP’s 2018 growth forecasts, she said, overestimated 2025 unincorporated population and housing: the 2025 DOF estimate for occupied units in unincorporated areas is about 39,414, roughly 7.3% below the CAP forecast for that year.
Using current data, Gage said the unincorporated area’s estimated vehicle miles traveled is about 2,242,834 vehicle‑miles per day for 2025, a 10.8% decline since 2015 and about 14.4% lower than the CAP projection for 2025. She said the annual report finds no increase in greenhouse‑gas emissions or VMT for the past 10 consecutive years and that, accordingly, staff do not recommend immediate new regulatory actions tied to a VMT increase threshold.
Commissioners asked questions about annexations, housing that is being counted within cities versus unincorporated areas, and the role new subdivisions will play in future VMT and housing counts. Gage said annexations and subdivision approvals inside city boundaries often shift housing counts away from unincorporated areas and that planned subdivisions (for example in Kingsburg and parts of Deleno) may change future totals when building permits are issued.
A commissioner asked about the county’s 75% solid‑waste diversion goal and the schedule for achieving it; Gage said that target year is 2030 and that the Solid Waste Department’s data show the county remains on track. When asked whether there are penalties for missing the target, a participant said fines in the several‑hundred‑thousand‑dollar range have been discussed by staff.
Gage closed by noting the CAP update uses current DOF, regional and statewide estimates to recalculate BAU (business‑as‑usual) emissions and reductions needed to meet state targets. The commission did not take regulatory action at the meeting; this was an informational report intended to fulfill reporting commitments and to inform future decisions about VMT and emissions controls.
