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NRCS: Utah saw record-low April 1 snowpack; widespread below-normal runoff expected
Summary
An NRCS briefing to the Utah Board of Water Resources warned that early peak and rapid melt produced record-low April 1 snow water equivalent at long-term sites, driving forecasts of much-below-normal April–July runoff across most basins and raising risks for groundwater depletion, wildfire and low reservoir inflows.
Jordan Clayton, a snow‑survey scientist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service, told the Utah Board of Water Resources that this year’s snowpack peaked early and melted quickly, producing “by far the lowest April 1 snow water equivalent that we’ve seen in the state of Utah going back through that entire recorded history.”
Clayton said statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) fell from a peak in early March to about 2.7 inches by April 1, and that the rapid dry‑down was the steepest observed in the SNOTEL record dating to 1980. That early melt and muted runoff response mean many forecast points and basins are projected well below normal for April–July flows; the presenter colorized forecast maps to highlight numerous sites that are expected to produce less than 50% of normal runoff and several that are candidates for record‑low flow.
“The runoff is happening early because of the snowmelt happening early, but also the runoff response has been very, very muted,” Clayton said, showing snow‑to‑flow plots for several basins where streamflow now sits near historically low levels despite measurable snowpack earlier in the season.
Clayton described two cascading concerns: shorter‑term impacts such as low summer surface water supplies and elevated fire hazard from dry mountain soils, and longer‑term risks if mountain soils and groundwater remain depleted going into the next winter. He said recent research linking groundwater and soil moisture to annual streamflow suggests an unusually dry season this year could depress next year’s runoff without a strong monsoon to recharge soils.
Board members asked about groundwater monitoring and statewide understanding of subsurface impacts. Clayton said statewide groundwater monitoring is limited compared with surface networks, so precise statewide answers are difficult; however, studies indicate that drier soils and lower groundwater recharge are consistent with reduced streamflow in subsequent seasons.
Clayton also summarized forecasts for key water bodies: Great Salt Lake inflow for the April–July period is projected at roughly 25% of normal under a 70th exceedance probability metric, and Lake Powell inflow forecasts for the April–July period were reported below typical volumes, with a 50th exceedance probability near or under 1 million acre‑feet in the most recent NRCS and Colorado Basin forecasts.
The board and staff said they will continue monitoring SNOTEL, stream gaging and model outputs, and that the Division and NRCS will brief legislative and stakeholder groups during the upcoming interim session. Clayton urged stakeholders to watch soil‑moisture and groundwater indicators over the summer, and said the state will be monitoring whether a seasonal monsoon helps recharge mountain soils before next winter’s snowpack forms.
