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APC reports progress on in‑house traffic model; forecasts to 2055 planned
Summary
APC staff updated the committee on an in‑house TransCAD traffic model calibrated to a 2023 base year, expanded to 362 zones with special treatment for Purdue University; staff expect calibration to finish in the coming months and plan forecasting through 2055 to identify future congestion and project needs.
APC staff presented an update on the agency’s in‑house traffic model and described next steps for long‑range forecasting.
Doug (APC) said the model uses a TransCAD platform and a standard four‑step methodology. The base year for calibration is 2023 (the year INDOT performed traffic counts used to inform calibration). APC increased its internal zoning from 324 to 362 zones to improve spatial resolution and treats Purdue University as a special traffic generator within the modeling framework.
Doug described mode‑split treatment (including buses around the Purdue campus), the gravity model approach to trip distribution and use of a gamma function for work trips, and said the model is “working fairly well” though a few areas remain under review. He said APC is calibrating parameters now and expects to complete that work in about one to four months before running 2055 forecast scenarios to identify where congestion will be worst and to guide long‑range project prioritization.
Committee members asked whether APC would produce 30‑year traffic maps; Doug said APC can generate maps and offered to provide them for a nominal fee. He also confirmed that recent large employers and hospital development were included in the employment and housing forecasts used in the model.
APC staff said producing scenario outputs and maps will be used to inform the long‑range plan and project selection; no formal action was required from the committee on the modeling update.
