Staff says dune restoration, plantings and modeling will take years but improve coastal resilience

Mohammed, the division’s project engineer, presented the board with modeling and restoration work meant to rebuild dune elevation and coastal vegetation to blunt hurricane overwash and reduce breach risk in Outer Clam Bay and adjacent shorelines.

Mohammed said the modeling was calibrated with pre/post hurricane aerials at Wiggins Pass and simulated multiple storms. The model shows dunes combined with plantings—sea oats seaward, sea grapes and buttonwoods landward, and mangroves in targeted areas—can keep overwash within historical envelopes and prevent large-scale penetration into the lagoon under many scenarios. He told the board the university partner is the University of South Florida.

Staff reported 3,000 mangrove seedlings have already been planted (average 2.53 feet tall) and the program aims to plant up to 10,000; Mohammed and staff cautioned not all plantings will survive and said plant establishment requires time: sea oats may take months, mangroves 1–2 years and coastal thicket species 2–4 years to reestablish meaningful protection.

The board discussed phasing plantings to concentrate protection near restaurants, high rises and the Ritz and asked staff to provide drone imagery or phased maps for the upcoming budget meeting. Staff said some plantings may be delayed through the dry season to improve survival and that monitoring and permit authorization will drive the longer-term schedule.

The board did not take formal action but directed staff to include phased planting maps and cost estimates in upcoming budget discussions.