Commission accepts 2025 AUIR, finds $712M shortfall for five‑year capital plan

The Collier County Board accepted the 2025 Annual Update and Inventory Report (AUIR) Jan. 27, a staff compilation of projected capital needs tied to population forecasts and adopted levels of service.

Planning director Mike Bozzi said the report uses medium‑range University of Florida BEBR projections and a 20% seasonal population adjustment; it treats Category A facilities (roads, stormwater, potable water, wastewater, solid waste, parks and schools) as concurrency facilities for the county. The AUIR identifies an estimated $3.09 billion in Category A capital projects needed through FY 2030 and notes an approximate $712 million shortfall for the five‑year window.

Major projects listed for near‑term design, mitigation or construction include Airport Road improvements, Collier Boulevard widening segments, the Randall & Mokeley Road intersection improvements, a planned Immokalee/Livingston flyover, and several large water‑ and wastewater‑treatment expansions. Staff emphasized that the AUIR is a rolling one‑year “snapshot” that informs budgeting and capital planning; projects in years four and five may require additional revenue sources before construction.

Finance director Christopher Johnson briefed the board on Collier’s debt history and capacity, noting outstanding principal was about $561.5 million at year‑end and the county’s bond ratings remain very strong. Commissioners discussed tradeoffs for pay‑as‑you‑go versus bonded finance and directed staff to continue capital planning work. The motion to accept the report as presented passed on a recorded vote.

Next steps: staff will bring project prioritization and financing options into the budget workshop and return with proposals to reconcile later‑year funding needs.