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River Falls study finds tight supply, rising prices and strong demand for affordable and senior housing
Summary
Maxfield Research told the River Falls Common Council that constrained inventory and rising prices have created large gaps between local wages and housing costs; the study projects demand through 2035 for roughly 1,650 general-occupancy units and nearly 1,200 senior units, with a substantial portion needing affordable or subsidized housing.
Joe Holman, director of research at Maxfield Research & Consulting, presented the city’s 2026 Housing Needs Analysis to the River Falls Common Council on May 26, saying the city faces a sustained mismatch between housing costs and local incomes.
Holman said the study projects River Falls’ population will approach 19,000 by 2035 and that the city has averaged about 164 new housing units per year over the past decade. He described both for-sale and rental markets as “tight”: the market-wide supply of homes for sale was about 2.2 months (compared with a six-month equilibrium), and market-rate rental vacancy was roughly 3.2 percent, well below the 5 percent equilibrium noted in the report. Holman added that the median resale price for detached single-family homes was just under $400,000 while a typical worker in Pierce County could afford a purchase of about $158,000, producing a substantial affordability gap.
The analysis projects demand through 2035 for about 1,650 general-occupancy units (roughly half for sale and half rental), including about 546 detached single-family homes and more than 400 rental units, plus nearly 1,200 senior housing units. Holman said about one-third of total demand and roughly 39 percent of senior demand will be for affordable or subsidized rental housing, trends he described as intensified since the 2018 study.
Council members raised questions about the study area and comparisons to earlier work. Holman said the study benchmarks the Minneapolis–St. Paul MSA and the two adjacent Wisconsin counties (Pierce and St. Croix) and that much of the research and data collection occurred in early 2026. He and councilors discussed the role of workforce housing, land trusts, public–private partnerships and gap financing; Council member Downing urged the council to prioritize tools such as community land trusts to preserve long-term affordability.
Holman also highlighted demographic shifts that will increase demand for various product types: younger adults driving rental demand, middle-age cohorts seeking move-up housing, and a projected 52 percent growth in the 75-and-older population by 2035 that will increase demand for service-enhanced senior housing.
The mayor and staff said next steps include sharing the study with the Plan Commission, scheduling council workshops to discuss policy responses, and continuing outreach to developers and partners. The report and staff memo were placed on the public record for further review; no formal council action on policy or funding occurred at the May 26 meeting.
