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County hires UVA Center for Survey Research for probability-based resident survey; mail sample of 3,000 planned
Summary
James City County staff and the University of Virginia's Center for Survey Research presented a probability-based resident survey design drawing 3,000 addresses, expecting roughly 23% response (~700 completes) and an overall margin of error of about +/-3.5%; fielding is planned to begin mid-July with final reporting in spring 2027.
Sarah Probst and representatives from the University of Virginia Center for Survey Research outlined the proposed 2026 James City County resident survey and its design. Cara Fitzgibbon of UVA CSR described a dual-mode, address-based probability sample of 3,000 households with online and paper options and multiple mailings designed to maximize response.
Fitzgibbon said the team expects a response rate in the low-to-mid 20% range based on recent comparable community surveys, noting that even modest adjustments in the initial sample size could be made to reach a target of about 700 responses. "For community surveys like this, it's in the 20%. You're hoping to gather somewhere around 600. Even for you all, a little higher. I'm expecting around 23%," she said, adding that a completed sample of about 700 would yield an overall margin of error near +/-3.5%.
The proposed schedule calls for instrument finalization by June, a mid-July mailing of announcement letters and questionnaires, a field period of approximately three months, and drafting and delivery of the final report with presentation back to the board in April 2027. The presenters said the questionnaire retains many comparable items from the 2019 survey but swaps an indoor-sports facility question for an aquatic-facilities item and makes modest wording updates to land-use items to preserve longitudinal comparability.
Board members asked about response-rate expectations, stratification options (PSA or ZIP-code strata), and how the results would be used for comprehensive-plan and strategic-plan implementation. The UVA team said they will accept board feedback in the coming weeks and finalize materials for printing by mid-June.
