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EIA says most U.S. households likely to spend about the same on heating this winter
Summary
The Energy Information Administration projects that most U.S. households will spend roughly the same on heating this winter as last: modestly lower fuel prices are expected to be offset by higher consumption and weather uncertainty, with regional risks for propane and natural gas.
The Energy Information Administration said most U.S. households are likely to spend about the same on heating this winter as they did last year, with lower wholesale fuel prices largely offset by higher consumer demand.
"We expect the majority of households will spend about the same on energy this winter as they did last winter," EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said during the agency's Winter Fuels Outlook webinar. He described the product as a forecast of residential winter expenditures that now separates space-heating costs from other end uses.
Why it matters: the Outlook combines three main drivers—household characteristics, weather and market prices—to estimate expenditures. EIA highlighted that weather uncertainty matters: its base case shows about 5% more heating degree days than last winter, and the agency produces warmer and colder alternative cases to capture that spread.
Details: EIA forecasts residential natural gas prices to be about 4% lower than last winter and electricity prices roughly unchanged; propane prices are forecast about 5% lower and heating oil prices about 9% lower. DeCarolis said those wholesale and retail price changes do not translate uniformly across regions because pass-through to retail customers is slower for regulated fuels (natural gas and electricity) and faster for market-priced fuels (propane and heating oil).
The agency also emphasized composition differences across households: about 45% of U.S. homes primarily heat with natural gas and about 43% with electricity, while propane and heating oil represent about 5% and 3% of homes, respectively. For households that primarily use electricity, most winter electricity bills include large "other end uses" such as air conditioning and appliances, so the space-heating portion is smaller.
Regional takeaways include an expectation that natural-gas households will spend roughly $600 on average this winter (about the same as last winter), and that Midwest natural-gas bills could be notably higher—EIA cited an ~11% increase versus last winter—largely because last winter there was unusually mild weather there.
What to watch: EIA will update short-term outlooks monthly through April 2025 and maintains linked data products (the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, weekly heating-oil and propane updates) for users seeking more granular, state-level metrics. DeCarolis cautioned that global crude-price moves or supply disruptions could still push distillate and heating-oil prices higher.
The webinar concluded with a panel Q&A in which EIA analysts explained how storm timing and location, regional inventory distributions, and regulated retail-rate structures can all alter how wholesale price swings affect consumer bills.
