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Marine Mammal Commission proposes workshop to integrate climate change into stock assessments
Summary
Commissioners and scientific advisers recommended a workshop (target: early 2025) with NOAA and USFWS to develop methods for integrating climate‑change effects into stock assessment reports and management decision tools, and discussed predictive tools and regional differences.
The Marine Mammal Commission devoted a major portion of its working meeting to how climate change should be incorporated into stock assessment reports (SARS) and management.
"Climate change wasn't front and center when the 1994 amendments were put out," Peter, the executive director, said in opening the topic, and described the commission's long record of Arctic and climate work dating to 2000. He noted the commission's 2021 strategic plan identified climate change as a priority and that the commission has funded climate‑focused grants.
Speakers debated practical paths for SARS integration: can parameters used in PBR calculations (for example Rmax) or other model inputs be adjusted quantitatively to reflect climate‑driven habitat loss, prey shifts and health impacts? Lori and others described examples where SARS or population models already incorporate human‑caused mortality (e.g., oil‑spill responses) and urged more work on population modeling frameworks that accommodate time‑varying carrying capacity or multiple stressors.
Panelists highlighted regional predictive tools and early warning systems—nowcasts and heat‑tracker products developed through integrated ecosystem assessments—that can forecast habitat compression and prey shifts over days to decades. They noted that having forecasts is not enough: management and regulatory procedures (and stakeholder buy‑in) must exist to act on those forecasts.
The commission and advisers converged on planning a focused workshop, jointly with NOAA and the Fish and Wildlife Service, to (1) identify feasible approaches to include climate signals in SARS and MSI estimates, (2) survey existing predictive tools and their regional applicability, and (3) define the background materials and expert participants needed. Several speakers also urged broader thinking about other MMPA authorities (section 112) and funding mechanisms (section 119) that could support climate‑related conservation.
Next steps: staff will form a steering group to scope the workshop and solicit inputs on background presentations and management questions. The commission expects the workshop to inform future SARS practice and FY2025 grant priorities.
