Kem C. Gardner study: Arches timed‑entry pilot linked to lower Arches visits but countywide visitation and local economy showed gains

Phil Dean, research director and chief economist at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, told the Grand County Commission on May 5 that the institute’s contracted study estimates Arches National Park experienced roughly 14% lower visitation during a timed‑entry pilot, while visitation to other area parks increased and the county’s inflation‑adjusted economic indicators showed positive growth from 2022 through 2024.

“Grand County has experienced positive economic growth from 2022 to 2024, in inflation adjusted terms, across a broad array of standard economic indicators,” Dean said during his presentation. He described the 14% figure as an outcome of counterfactual analysis intended to estimate what Arches visitation might have been without the timed‑entry pilot.

The study, Dean confirmed, had not been included in the meeting’s agenda packet but will be shared publicly following the briefing. Commissioner Vice‑Chair Bill Winfield presided during the presentation.

Mary O’Brien, speaking during the afternoon public‑comment period, criticized the process and intent for contracting the Arches Timed Entry Study, saying she disapproved of how the county handled the matter; the transcript does not show a direct response from the commission during the meeting.

Why it matters: county officials and tourism stakeholders use visitation and economic analyses to weigh operational policies for parks and local transportation, and the study’s findings could shape future county discussions about visitor management and marketing. The commission listed funding of the Kem C. Gardner Arches Timed Entry Study as a future consideration during the meeting’s disclosures and planning notes.

Next steps: the institute’s report will be posted publicly, and commissioners flagged the study’s funding and implications for future agenda consideration.