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Consultants present draft land‑use assumptions and population projections for Richwood impact‑fee study
Summary
Strand Associates presented draft land‑use assumptions and population projections to Richwood’s advisory committee, proposing the city limits as the service area and recommending initial 10‑year connection assumptions (Oakwood Shores: ~10/year) to feed impact‑fee calculations under Texas Local Government Code Chapter 395.
Strand Associates presented a draft set of land‑use assumptions and population projections to Richwood’s Capital Improvements Advisory Committee, saying the materials are the foundation for calculating maximum assessable impact fees for water and wastewater under Texas Local Government Code Chapter 395.
Ryan Tinsley of Strand Associates told the committee the study will treat the city limits as the service area and focus on water and wastewater projects that add capacity for new development. “When we are calculating the impact fees, we can only consider the portion of the capital improvement plans that are attributable to new development over a period of up to 10 years,” Tinsley said, repeating the statutory constraint the firm will use to define eligible projects.
Morgan Ruiz of Strand Associates reviewed the population methodology included in the packet: assumptions for lot yield (estate lots at 1 lot/4 acres, single‑family at 3 lots/acre, mixed‑use 80/20 residential/commercial), an occupancy factor of 2.3 people per household and an allowance that roughly 52% of a development area becomes residential lots after roads, parks and drainage are removed. Strand showed alternative growth lines based on TWDB and HGAC projections, historical census averages and a LUA line tied to locally identified development areas.
Using those inputs, Strand proposed three growth‑area assumptions that together produce about 20 new lots per year (roughly 57 people annually) for the 10‑year impact window: Oakwood Shores ~10 new service connections per year, Northwest area ~5/year, and an East area across 288 B starting in year six at ~5/year. Strand emphasized the assumptions are draft and that staff and the CIAC should provide feedback before the firm prepares a draft capital improvement plan and fee calculations.
Committee members asked for context comparing the draft projections to the 2019 study and actual population counts; several members requested a projected‑versus‑actual chart for the next presentation so the committee can evaluate prior forecast accuracy before formally selecting the 10‑year percentage to use. Tinsley agreed to provide that comparison and to return with the draft CIP and calculated impact‑fee amounts for water and wastewater at the next meeting. The CIAC will be asked to make a formal recommendation to council and, after a 30‑day public notice period, the city will schedule a public hearing and the required ordinance readings.
The presentation and committee feedback will feed Strand’s next deliverable — the draft capital improvement plan and maximum assessable impact‑fee calculations — which the firm said it will present to the committee and then to the council for the formal public‑hearing and adoption process.
