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Baldwin County staff project near-term enrollment rise and preview rezoning maps to ease pressure in Foley and Daphne
Summary
District demographer Michael Baum told the board the Foley area accounts for most short-term growth; staff presented three draft redistricting maps that would shift modest numbers of elementary students (Alberta, Summerdale, Silver Hill) and recommended public meetings before final action.
Michael Baum, the district’s enrollment analyst, told the Baldwin County school board at a Oct. 21 work session that recent, actively building developments are likely to produce several hundred near‑term students and that the Foley area shows the strongest immediate growth pressure. "We're starting out with, Bay Minette Elementary ... I'm expecting about 25 elementary kids out of that," Baum said as he described his methodology, which uses Market Graphics Research and ArcGIS Pro to geolocate student addresses and calculate a student-yield factor.
Baum emphasized the estimates are projections, not exact counts. "A student yield factor ... means about, 1 student for every 3 houses," he said, and noted developer timetables are highly uncertain: one Spanish Fort proposal near Delta could add hundreds of units but the developer told staff it may not start for eight to ten years.
The presentation included feeder‑pattern tallies and three draft rezoning maps staff said are intended to rebalance elementary enrollment. Joe (S13), who walked the board through the maps, said the Summerdale area would shift about 41 students away from Alberta Elementary, and Alberta would net a loss of about 65 under the draft scenario; Locksley and Silver Hill pick up students to improve balance. "Alberta Elementary will go from 929 to about 865, so that's a loss of about 65 students there," Joe said while describing the plan. Staff stressed these figures assume no zone variances or grandfathering.
Board members pressed staff on time horizons and forecasting limits, citing past examples (Jubilee/Bell Forest) where build‑out occurred faster or slower than anticipated. One board member urged using historic census trends to back‑test projections; Baum replied his short‑term approach focuses on developments already building houses and that the district prefers to "plan for the worst and have bigger numbers and get fewer kids."
Officials singled out Foley as the most acute near‑term pressure point: Baum estimated roughly 263 additional students across Mathis and Magnolia feeder patterns and said Mathis already uses portables and has limited room to expand. "Between Mathis and Magnolia, 263 more students within the next few years," he said, arguing the district will likely need to acquire land and consider a new school site in the Foley area.
Staff described next steps: each rezoning area will have a public meeting led by an assistant superintendent to explain grandfathering, zone‑variance options and collect questions. Staff indicated a formal proposal could return to the board for review in February with possible final action in March to allow families and schools sufficient notice.
The board asked staff to continue frequent reporting and to work with city planners on development timing so the district can adjust plans if large projects accelerate.
The district cited a modest, recent decline in ADM versus current seat counts; Schaller (S10) provided consolidated annual counts to a reporter, showing 2025–26 enrollment around 30,168 compared with prior-year totals that were slightly higher. Staff noted the Choice Act and other factors complicate short‑term trends.
