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Healdsburg council accepts 2025–2045 electricity demand forecast; directs staff to pursue renewables
Summary
Utility staff presented a long‑range forecast projecting a 75% rise in annual electricity consumption and a 44% rise in peak demand by 2045 under a 'most likely' electrification scenario; council unanimously adopted a resolution accepting the forecast with a 10% planning margin and directed the utility director to pursue renewable and zero‑carbon resources to meet state targets.
Healdsburg utility staff and consultants presented a long‑range electricity consumption and peak‑demand forecast modeling building electrification and electric‑vehicle adoption through 2045.
Utility analyst Tara Samson said the model’s most likely scenario — based on current adoption trends, community survey results and anticipated state rules — projects about a 75% increase in annual net electricity consumption and a roughly 44% rise in peak demand by 2045. Staff recommended applying a 10% planning margin to account for system losses and other variables and asked the council to direct the utility director to seek renewable and zero‑carbon contracts to close the projected supply gap.
"By 2045, in the most likely scenario, we expect a 75% increase in our annual net electricity consumption and a 44% increase in our peak demand," Samson said. Council members expressed concern about infrastructure costs (transformer upgrades, wire and distribution upgrades) and the need to phase procurements and grid investments to limit short‑term rate impacts.
The council unanimously adopted the staff resolution accepting the forecast with the 10% planning margin and directed the utility director to bring forward renewable and zero‑carbon procurement options for council consideration; staff will incorporate needs into the next electric rate study (2027) and bring infrastructure recommendations to council as projects develop.
Why this matters: The forecast frames the utility’s long‑term procurement and capital priorities amid state renewable and zero‑carbon targets (52% by 2027, 60% by 2030, higher thereafter). Staff warned that meeting later state targets could require large new renewable procurements and storage paired with distribution upgrades and that costs would need to be phased into future rates.
Next steps: Work with the Northern California Power Agency and other partners to identify contracts and to scope distribution upgrades; return with procurement recommendations and infrastructure cost estimates for council consideration.
