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Sun Prairie Area School District presentation: baseline model most accurate; modest near-term enrollment growth possible
Summary
A researcher from the Applied Population Laboratory told the Sun Prairie Area School District that the baseline projection model had the lowest error last year and that district enrollment could change between a loss of about 200 and a gain of about 160 PK–12 students over five years; kindergarten and housing trends will shape near-term results.
Sarah Kemp of the Applied Population Laboratory presented enrollment projections to the Sun Prairie Area School District, describing model accuracy, birth and housing data, and grade-by-grade forecasts.
Kemp said the baseline model provided last year was the most accurate overall, with an error rate of about 8 percent, and that grade-level performance varied: the five-year trend best fit elementary grades, the baseline model matched middle school counts closely, and a kindergarten-trend approach had about a 5 percent error for the high-school-related kindergarten cohorts.
The presentation emphasized two local demographic inputs. Kemp reviewed municipal birth counts (excluding Madison births) and said long-term births are roughly steady with some recent declines after 2021, while the nine-year view shows a modest upward tendency. She also summarized U.S. Census population changes from 2010 to 2020 that show growth in the district and reported roughly 2,000 new housing units constructed in the district from 2015–2024, about one-third of total construction during that period.
On methods, Kemp described the grade progression ratio method, which projects each grade by applying historical grade-to-grade ratios. The team uses 10-, 5- and 3-year averages of those ratios: the baseline model uses 10-year ratios and a long-term birth trend for kindergarten, the five- and three-year trend models emphasize recent birth trends, and a separate kindergarten-trend model uses recent kindergarten counts (not births) to project incoming cohorts.
Kemp gave model-specific projections: over the next five years the district’s PK–12 enrollment could range from a loss of about 200 students to a gain of about 160 students depending on the model. She said elementary enrollment is likely to rise slightly (an increase of roughly 4 to 44 students), middle school enrollment is projected to decline as smaller elementary cohorts advance (about 150–300 fewer students, roughly an 8%–15% decrease), and high school enrollment could fall by about 30 students or increase by as many as about 250 (roughly −1% to +9%).
Kemp highlighted the kindergarten picture as particularly influential: a long-term 10-year kindergarten trend shows decline, but the most recent five-year trend shows increases, and the presentation uses the recent five-year pattern for projecting four-year-old kindergarten. She also noted that, on average, about 85 percent of births in the study area enter four-year-old kindergarten, which factors into the 4K forecasts.
The presentation was informational; no formal action or vote is recorded in the transcript. District planners and administrators received the report for use in capacity planning, staffing, and boundary or facility discussions.
The district’s full projection tables and underlying figures were provided in the report Kemp referenced; the presentation closed after the summary with no further decisions recorded.
