DCR releases draft Phase 2 Coastal Resilience Master Plan, cites sharper flood exposure and opens comment period

An agency official from the Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR) on the webinar introducing the draft Coastal Resilience Master Plan (CRMP) Phase 2 said the plan provides updated data, models and tools to help local and regional governments plan for rising flood risks across Coastal Virginia.

The presenter said Phase 2 expands the technical scope of the CRMP to include coastal, riverine and rainfall-driven flooding, and to present results across multiple planning horizons and projection ranges. "This plan is intended to be a trusted resource for data and information that local and regional practitioners can leverage to make informed, long term flood protection and mitigation decisions," the agency official said.

Why it matters: DCR framed Phase 2 as a practical planning tool that state, regional and local practitioners can use to prioritize projects and pursue funding. The plan includes a searchable Coastal Resilience Web Explorer and an open data portal intended to support capital planning, public education, and the technical integration of CRMP outputs into local comprehensive plans, hazard mitigation plans, and other decision documents.

Key findings and numbers: Under the near-future moderate scenario (2030–2060, moderate projections), DCR reported the plan shows about a 13% increase in acres exposed to major rainfall-driven flooding, about a 53% increase in the number of buildings that could be exposed to major coastal flooding, roughly 9% of lands managed for permanent natural-resource conservation could be inundated by tidal flooding, and approximately 15% of the regional population could live in areas exposed to major flooding. The presenter emphasized these are scenario-based projections and that the plan offers multiple projection ranges to reflect uncertainty.

Inventory and recommendations: The plan’s projects and initiatives inventory is a living database available in the Web Explorer. DCR said the 2024 update added more than 500 flood-resilience activities and that, to date, nearly 950 projects and initiatives are in the inventory. About three-quarters of those entries are classified as projects and about one-quarter as initiatives; for projects, DCR gave a status breakdown of about 46% proposed, 42% taking action, and about 12% complete. Project types include structural measures (flood walls, pump stations, drainage improvements), natural or nature-based solutions (living shorelines, barrier islands), hybrid projects, and a small 'other' category (for example, dam-failure mitigation and power-outage resilience).

Process and next steps: DCR described the Coastal Resilience Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) as more than 35 organizations that produced more than 100 recommendations and prioritized 20 that appear in Phase 2. For implementation, the Office of Resilience Planning (ORP) said it will pursue four key steps, including conducting regional roadshows, providing tailored trainings and data on request, and applying an adaptive management approach; the CRMP is scheduled to be updated every five years. "We are developing a framework in our content management system to capture feedback for future planning efforts," the agency official said.

Public engagement: DCR encouraged public input on the draft Phase 2 plan and its tools via the town hall website. "We encourage you to visit the town hall website and provide comment by June 3," the presenter said. DCR also plans periodic outreach and targeted user feedback to track how jurisdictions use CRMP data.

Limitations and modeling caveats: The presenter cautioned that model outputs do not include municipal stormwater infrastructure and that the maps shown stack separate flood layers rather than display compound events; where compounds occur the combined picture may differ from the stacked-layer maps. DCR also explained that planning scenarios pair time horizons (baseline, near future, far future) with projection ranges (moderate, high) so decision-makers can choose risk-tolerance appropriate inputs.

What to watch: DCR emphasized that Phase 2 is intended to inform project prioritization and funding decisions and that the agency will work with local governments and planning district commissions to integrate CRMP data into local planning. The public comment period for the draft Phase 2 plan is open through June 3; DCR said it will continue collecting targeted feedback after the initial comment window and will track implementation metrics for ORP-led recommendations.

Sources: Presentation by an agency official, Department of Conservation and Recreation, webinar introducing the draft Coastal Resilience Master Plan Phase 2.