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County planner says RHNA allocation is large and cautions on feasibility for Humboldt County
Summary
Humboldt County Planning Director John Ford told MMAC the county’s RHNA allocation for 2028–2035 is 5,962 units (2,481 for unincorporated areas), a 75% increase over the prior cycle, and cautioned that declining population, rising construction costs and limited job growth make meeting that allocation challenging.
John Ford, Humboldt County planning director, presented the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) Cycle 7 allocation and related affordable-housing ordinance options at the McKinleyville Municipal Advisory Committee meeting on April 22.
Ford said the countywide RHNA allocation for 2028–2035 is 5,962 units, a 75% increase from the previous cycle’s 3,390 units; the unincorporated county’s share is 2,481 units (about 41.5 percent). He noted Humboldt County’s median income is approximately $58,000–$60,000 and that housing construction has declined (147 units in 2020 to 74 units last year), raising questions about the practicality of meeting such large allocations and the risk of losing state funding for noncompliance.
In a related workshop, Ford reviewed affordable-housing ordinance options and examples from other counties: Monterey County (inclusionary trigger 6+ units, 20% affordable), Fresno County (5+ units, 10%), and Sutter County (10+ units, 5%). He recommended that a Humboldt inclusionary approach consider a high trigger threshold with a low percentage of units targeted to low and very low income categories; he also noted that HCD requires a feasibility review if an inclusionary requirement exceeds 15 percent.
Discussion among committee members and participants emphasized the local context: construction costs have risen sharply (Ford cited a rough estimate rising from under $100 per sq ft historically to about $450 per sq ft), limited local job creation and falling population reduce developer incentives, and additional regulatory costs could deter projects. Committee member Kevin Jenkins warned against cumulative regulatory burdens, saying it risks "death by a thousand paper cuts." Participants encouraged exploring levers to reduce development costs, coordinated infrastructure planning, in-lieu fees, density bonuses, land dedication, and grant partnerships.
Ford and workshop participants also discussed how RHNA’s methodology (50% jobs/50% population with opportunity and VMT modifiers) and potential changes in counting student populations could affect allocations and local priorities. The presentation and workshop did not adopt policy changes; they were informational and intended to inform future policy discussions at the county level.
